Paul George's assists props have been a goldmine for under bettors, hitting just 40% overs across his last 10 games with a brutal -23.6% ROI on the over side. His 2.8 average sits 0.3 assists below the typical 3.1 line, creating consistent value on unders.
Expert Analysis
Paul George's assist struggles in Philadelphia stem from a fundamental role adjustment that books haven't fully priced in. Moving from the Clippers' system where he functioned as a secondary playmaker, George now operates primarily as a scorer alongside Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey, both ball-dominant players who limit his distribution opportunities. The 2.8 average against a 3.1 line represents a significant 10% gap that suggests oddsmakers are still pricing him based on his historical assist rates rather than his current usage patterns. Philadelphia's pace ranks in the bottom third of the league, further constraining George's assist ceiling by reducing total possessions. The concerning trend shows little sign of regression - George's assist rate has remained consistently low as he's adapted to being the third option in the offense rather than a primary facilitator. His role as a catch-and-shoot threat and secondary scorer means fewer touches in positions where assists naturally develop. The 14.6% ROI on unders demonstrates this isn't random variance but a structural shift in his responsibilities. With no significant injuries or lineup changes to suggest this trend will reverse, the under appears to offer sustained value until books adjust their lines downward.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. George's role transition in Philadelphia has fundamentally altered his assist production, creating a persistent gap between market expectations and reality. The 14.6% under ROI suggests genuine value, particularly when the line sits at 3.0 or higher. Main risk is potential lineup changes or increased playmaking responsibility if Maxey misses time.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-05 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-27 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-24 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-17 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-09 | OPP | 3.5 | 9.0 | +5.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-04 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-04 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-26 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-23 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-21 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Paul George's Assists prop record last 10 games?
Paul George has gone 4-6-0 on assists overs in his last 10 games, hitting just 40% of over bets. This represents a significant under-performance that has generated negative -23.6% ROI for over bettors during this stretch.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Paul George Assists last 10 games?
Bet the under on Paul George assists props. His 40% over rate and +14.6% under ROI indicate genuine value on the under side, driven by his reduced playmaking role in Philadelphia's offensive system.
What's Paul George's average Assists last 10 games?
Paul George is averaging 2.8 assists over his last 10 games, which sits 0.3 assists below the typical 3.1 line. This 10% gap represents the core value proposition for under bettors in this market.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Paul George assists unders when the line is set at 3.0 or higher, particularly in games where Philadelphia faces slower-paced opponents or when Embiid and Maxey are both healthy and commanding touches.