Paul George's assists prop shows a clear under bias with just 37.5% overs across 16 games, averaging 2.88 assists against a 3.31 line. The -0.4 differential and strong 19.3% under ROI suggest consistent value on the under side.
Expert Analysis
Paul George's assist totals reveal a fundamental disconnect between market expectations and Philadelphia's offensive reality. Averaging 2.88 assists against a 3.31 line creates a significant 0.4-assist gap that reflects his reduced playmaking role alongside Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey. The 76ers' system doesn't maximize George's facilitation skills the way his previous teams did, as he's functioning more as a complementary scorer than a primary initiator. The 37.5% over rate across 16 games isn't a small sample fluke—it represents a systematic underperformance that stems from Philadelphia's ball movement hierarchy. George's assist numbers have been artificially inflated by books still pricing him based on his historical role rather than his current usage pattern. The -28.4% over ROI demonstrates how consistently this line has been mispriced, while the +19.3% under ROI shows legitimate betting value. With limited shot creation responsibilities and playing alongside ball-dominant teammates, George's assist opportunities remain constrained. The current streak of consecutive unders aligns with the broader trend rather than representing variance that's due for correction.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 0.4-assist differential between George's actual average and the typical line represents genuine structural value, not temporary variance. Philadelphia's offensive hierarchy limits his playmaking opportunities compared to his previous roles. The main risk is potential lineup changes or increased usage if Embiid or Maxey miss time, but the current system consistently produces under results.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-05 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-27 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-24 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-17 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-09 | OPP | 3.5 | 9.0 | +5.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-04 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-04 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-26 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-23 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-21 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-14 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-07 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-03 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-02 | OPP | 4.5 | 6.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-24 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Paul George's Assists prop record all games?
Paul George's assists prop record shows 6 overs, 10 unders, and 0 pushes across 16 games, resulting in a 37.5% over rate. He's averaging 2.88 assists per game against typical lines around 3.31.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Paul George Assists all games?
Bet the under on Paul George's assists props. He's consistently underperforming the line by 0.4 assists per game with strong under ROI of 19.3%, while overs show a -28.4% loss rate.
What's Paul George's average Assists all games?
Paul George averages 2.88 assists per game across all games, which is 0.4 assists below the typical 3.31 line. This consistent underperformance creates a structural edge for under bettors.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Paul George assists unders when he's playing alongside Embiid and Maxey, as Philadelphia's current system limits his playmaking role. Avoid when key teammates are injured and his usage increases significantly.