Patrick Williams has been ice-cold from deep, hitting just 20% of his three-pointer overs across his last 10 games with a brutal 2-8-0 record. Averaging only 1.0 makes against a 1.5 line creates a -0.5 differential that screams systematic underperformance. The under presents compelling value with +52.7% ROI.
Expert Analysis
Williams's three-point struggles represent more than variance—they signal a fundamental shift in his offensive role and confidence. The 1.0 average against a 1.5 line isn't marginal underperformance; it's a player consistently falling short of market expectations by half a make per game. This differential suggests either the market hasn't adjusted to Williams's reduced three-point volume or he's genuinely struggling with shot selection and mechanics. The 20% over rate across 10 games provides significant sample size credibility, especially when paired with the current three-game under streak extending a previous five-game drought. Chicago's offensive system may be limiting Williams's clean looks from beyond the arc, forcing him into more contested attempts or reducing his overall three-point attempts. The -61.8% ROI on overs indicates sharp money has likely identified this trend, while the +52.7% under ROI suggests continued value exists. Without meaningful changes to his role, usage, or shooting mechanics, Williams appears systematically overvalued in three-point markets, making this trend likely to persist rather than regress.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Williams's 1.0 average creates a meaningful 0.5-make cushion below the typical 1.5 line, supported by strong under ROI and a clear pattern of market overvaluation. The three-game under streak adds momentum to an already compelling trend. Primary risk involves potential positive regression or increased usage, but his consistent underperformance suggests systematic issues rather than temporary variance.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-03-24 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-03-15 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-06 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-18 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-26 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-25 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-02 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best 3-Pointers Made Prop Lines
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Patrick Williams's 3-Pointers Made prop record last 10 games?
Patrick Williams has gone 2-8-0 over/under on his Three Pointers Made props in his last 10 games, hitting just 20% of overs. He's averaging 1.0 makes against typical 1.5 lines, creating a consistent half-make deficit that favors under bettors significantly.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Patrick Williams 3-Pointers Made last 10 games?
Bet under on Patrick Williams Three Pointers Made props. His 1.0 average vs 1.5 lines, 20% over rate, and +52.7% under ROI create compelling value. The three-game under streak adds momentum to an already strong systematic trend favoring unders.
What's Patrick Williams's average 3-Pointers Made last 10 games?
Patrick Williams is averaging 1.0 Three Pointers Made over his last 10 games, which sits 0.5 makes below the typical 1.5 line. This meaningful differential of half a make per game represents consistent underperformance that creates value for under bettors.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Patrick Williams Three Pointers Made unders when lines are set at 1.5, especially during his current cold streak. His systematic underperformance at 1.0 average creates the best value against standard market pricing, particularly with his recent three-game under momentum.