Patrick Williams has hit steals unders at a 60% clip over his last 10 games, averaging just 0.9 steals against a 0.7 line. Despite the positive differential, the under has delivered a solid 14.6% ROI while overs have been brutal at -23.6%. Lean Under with medium confidence.
Expert Analysis
The steals market for Patrick Williams presents a fascinating case study in variance versus expectation. While Williams is averaging 0.9 steals per game against a 0.7 line—a seemingly favorable +0.2 differential—the betting reality tells a different story. The under has cashed in 6 of 10 games with a healthy 14.6% ROI, suggesting the line may be efficiently pricing in his steal potential rather than being conservative. Williams's defensive role as a power forward naturally limits his steal opportunities compared to perimeter defenders, and his 0.9 average likely includes one or two outlier performances that skew the mean upward. The concerning factor is his recent consistency issues, evidenced by a longest under streak of 4 games, indicating he can go cold on defensive playmaking for extended periods. His steal production appears more dependent on game flow and opponent pace than sustainable defensive positioning, making the higher line vulnerable to regression. The Bulls' defensive scheme and Williams's primary responsibility as a rim protector rather than a disruptor in passing lanes further supports the case that his steal numbers may be inflated by small sample variance.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 14.6% ROI on unders combined with Williams's positional limitations as a steal producer outweighs the modest positive differential. Target games where Chicago faces slower-paced opponents or when Williams is likely to play more minutes at power forward rather than small forward. The main risk is a high-steal outlier game that could skew short-term averages, but the underlying role suggests regression toward the under.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 3.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-02 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-28 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-23 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-20 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-18 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-16 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Steals Prop Lines
Compare Patrick Williams props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Patrick Williams's Steals prop record last 10 games?
Patrick Williams has gone 4-6-0 over/under on steals props in his last 10 games, hitting the under 60% of the time. The under bets have generated a 14.6% ROI while overs have lost -23.6%.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Patrick Williams Steals last 10 games?
Bet the under on Patrick Williams steals props. Despite averaging 0.9 steals versus a 0.7 line, unders have been profitable at 14.6% ROI over 10 games, and his power forward role naturally limits steal opportunities.
What's Patrick Williams's average Steals last 10 games?
Patrick Williams is averaging 0.9 steals per game over his last 10 contests, which is 0.2 steals above the typical 0.7 line. However, this positive differential hasn't translated to profitable over bets.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Patrick Williams steals unders when Chicago faces slower-paced opponents or when he's playing more power forward minutes. Avoid games against up-tempo teams where increased possessions could inflate his steal opportunities through volume alone.