Patrick Williams shows a clear edge toward overs on one day rest, hitting 60.0% with a 9-6-0 record across 15 games. His 11.4 scoring average beats the typical 10.7 line by 0.7 points, generating +14.6% ROI on overs. This presents a lean over opportunity.
Expert Analysis
Patrick Williams demonstrates consistent offensive elevation when operating on one day rest, a pattern that reflects both physical readiness and rhythm maintenance. The 11.4 scoring average against 10.7 lines reveals oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted to his enhanced production in this rest scenario. Williams benefits from the sweet spot of recovery time—enough to restore energy without losing game flow that longer breaks can disrupt. His 60.0% over rate across 15 games provides meaningful sample size credibility, while the +14.6% ROI on overs shows sustainable profitability. The current two-game under streak actually strengthens the case, as it likely represents natural variance rather than trend breakdown. Williams' role as a complementary scorer means his production often depends on game script and usage, both of which tend to stabilize with proper rest. The lack of extreme volatility in his performances suggests this isn't a boom-bust pattern but rather a consistent elevation in baseline production. However, the -23.6% under ROI indicates sharp line movement when this trend fails, suggesting some market awareness exists.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Patrick Williams' 11.4 scoring average on one day rest consistently beats typical 10.7 lines, creating sustainable value despite current two-game under streak. The 60.0% hit rate over 15 games provides solid foundation, while his complementary role benefits from the rhythm maintenance that one day rest provides. Main risk involves potential line adjustments as books recognize this pattern.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-29 | OPP | 9.5 | 0.0 | -9.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-03-24 | OPP | 8.5 | 6.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-03-15 | OPP | 9.5 | 10.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2025-02-02 | OPP | 10.5 | 11.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-06 | OPP | 10.5 | 12.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 10.5 | 7.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-10 | OPP | 8.5 | 5.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-28 | OPP | 14.5 | 22.0 | +7.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-23 | OPP | 12.5 | 13.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-20 | OPP | 12.5 | 15.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-18 | OPP | 10.5 | 13.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-16 | OPP | 10.5 | 25.0 | +14.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-14 | OPP | 10.5 | 9.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-08 | OPP | 12.5 | 20.0 | +7.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-27 | OPP | 9.5 | 3.0 | -6.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Patrick Williams's Points prop record 1 day rest?
Patrick Williams posts a 9-6-0 over/under record on his Points props with one day rest, hitting overs at a 60.0% rate across 15 games. This translates to profitable +14.6% ROI on over bets in this specific rest situation.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Patrick Williams Points 1 day rest?
Lean over on Patrick Williams Points with one day rest. His 11.4 scoring average consistently beats typical 10.7 lines by 0.7 points, creating sustainable edge despite current two-game under streak that likely represents natural variance.
What's Patrick Williams's average Points 1 day rest?
Patrick Williams averages 11.4 points when playing on one day rest, compared to typical betting lines around 10.7 points. This 0.7-point differential above market expectations has generated consistent value for over bettors across 15 games.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Patrick Williams Points overs specifically on one day rest scenarios, where he shows 60.0% hit rate. Avoid back-to-back games or extended rest situations where his complementary scoring role becomes less predictable and rhythm suffers.