Patrick Williams has been a consistent under performer in points props, hitting over just 30.0% of the time (3-7-0) over his last 10 games. With an average of 6.8 points against a 10.1 line, he's falling short by 3.3 points per game. This represents a strong lean under opportunity.
Expert Analysis
Patrick Williams's points production has been hampered by his limited offensive role within Chicago's system, where he functions primarily as a complementary piece rather than a focal point. The 3.3-point differential between his actual production (6.8) and the betting line (10.1) suggests oddsmakers are overvaluing his scoring potential based on his draft pedigree rather than current usage patterns. Williams's inconsistency stems from Chicago's crowded frontcourt rotation and his tendency to defer to more established scorers like DeMar DeRozan and Nikola Vucevic. The Bulls often utilize Williams as a defensive specialist and floor spacer, roles that don't translate to consistent scoring opportunities. His current streak of two consecutive unders follows a pattern where he's shown limited ability to sustain scoring bursts, with his longest over streak reaching just three games compared to a five-game under streak. The persistent nature of this trend suggests structural issues rather than temporary shooting variance, as Williams continues to average fewer touches and shot attempts than his line suggests he should receive.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 3.3-point deficit between Williams's actual production and betting lines creates consistent value on the under, supported by his limited offensive role in Chicago's system. Target this bet when Williams faces strong defensive opponents or when Chicago has their full complement of scorers available, as these conditions further limit his opportunities. The main risk is a potential breakout game if injuries create expanded usage, but his 30% over rate suggests such games are outliers rather than sustainable trends.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-29 | OPP | 9.5 | 0.0 | -9.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-03-24 | OPP | 8.5 | 6.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-03-15 | OPP | 9.5 | 10.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2025-02-02 | OPP | 10.5 | 11.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-06 | OPP | 10.5 | 12.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-18 | OPP | 10.5 | 8.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 10.5 | 7.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-26 | OPP | 11.5 | 3.0 | -8.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-25 | OPP | 11.5 | 6.0 | -5.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-10 | OPP | 8.5 | 5.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Patrick Williams's Points prop record last 10 games?
Patrick Williams has gone over his points prop in just 3 of his last 10 games (30.0%), going under 7 times with no pushes. This 3-7-0 record represents significant underperformance against market expectations over this sample.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Patrick Williams Points last 10 games?
Bet under on Patrick Williams points props. His 6.8 average against a 10.1 line creates a 3.3-point edge, while his 30% over rate and +33.6% under ROI demonstrate consistent market overvaluation of his scoring ability.
What's Patrick Williams's average Points last 10 games?
Patrick Williams is averaging 6.8 points over his last 10 games, falling 3.3 points short of his typical 10.1 betting line. This substantial deficit highlights his limited offensive role and creates consistent under value.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Williams under bets when Chicago has their full roster healthy, limiting his touches, or against strong defensive teams that can contain his limited offensive skillset. Avoid when key Bulls scorers are injured and he sees expanded usage.