Patrick Williams has been a brutal over bet in home games, hitting just 36.4% of his Points props with a devastating -30.6% ROI. Averaging 8.73 points against an 11.14 line creates a massive -2.4 differential that screams systematic undervaluation by the market. This is a clear lean under situation.
Expert Analysis
The numbers paint a stark picture of a player consistently failing to meet inflated expectations at the United Center. Williams's 8.73 scoring average represents a significant 21.6% shortfall from his typical line, suggesting bookmakers are pricing in a more aggressive offensive role than he actually occupies in Chicago's system. The 4-7-0 record isn't just bad luck—it reflects structural issues with his usage patterns and shot selection at home. While small sample size concerns exist with 11 games, the consistency of the underperformance (-2.4 differential) indicates this isn't random variance. The key question becomes whether this trend represents sustainable value or if regression toward his projected scoring is inevitable. Williams's role as a complementary piece rather than primary option appears more pronounced in familiar home settings, where the Bulls may rely more heavily on established stars. The -30.6% ROI on overs creates a compelling mathematical case, though bettors should monitor any shifts in Chicago's offensive philosophy or Williams's minute distribution that could alter this dynamic.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The -2.4 scoring differential and 36.4% over rate create legitimate value on Williams's under, particularly when his line exceeds 10 points. Target games where Chicago faces strong defensive teams that limit secondary scoring options. Primary risk involves potential role expansion if injuries strike Chicago's frontcourt, which could dramatically shift his usage and scoring opportunities in a small sample.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 11 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-29 | OPP | 9.5 | 0.0 | -9.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-06 | OPP | 10.5 | 12.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 10.5 | 7.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-26 | OPP | 11.5 | 3.0 | -8.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-10 | OPP | 8.5 | 5.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-28 | OPP | 14.5 | 22.0 | +7.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-23 | OPP | 12.5 | 13.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-20 | OPP | 12.5 | 15.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-06 | OPP | 12.5 | 8.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-27 | OPP | 9.5 | 3.0 | -6.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-25 | OPP | 10.5 | 8.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Patrick Williams's Points prop record home games?
Patrick Williams is 4-7-0 on Points overs in home games, hitting just 36.4% with a -30.6% ROI. He's averaging 8.73 points against an 11.14 line, creating a significant -2.4 differential that favors under bets.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Patrick Williams Points home games?
Bet under on Patrick Williams Points in home games. The 36.4% over rate and -2.4 scoring differential create clear value, especially when his line exceeds 10 points. Under bets have generated positive 21.5% ROI.
What's Patrick Williams's average Points home games?
Patrick Williams averages 8.73 points in home games, which is 2.4 points below his typical 11.14 line. This 21.6% shortfall represents one of the larger gaps between performance and market expectations.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Patrick Williams under bets in home games against strong defensive teams when his line is set above 10 points. Avoid betting if Chicago's frontcourt faces injury issues that could expand his role.