Pascal Siakam's three-point shooting on one day of rest presents a clear under opportunity, hitting just 42.9% of overs across 28 games with a -0.1 differential from the typical 1.07 line. The under trend shows remarkable consistency with +9.1% ROI, making this a high-conviction fade spot.
Expert Analysis
The numbers paint a compelling picture of Siakam's diminished three-point accuracy following minimal rest. His 1.0 average on one day rest falls short of the standard 1.07 line, creating consistent value on the under. This pattern suggests Siakam's shot selection becomes more conservative or his legs aren't quite recovered enough for optimal perimeter shooting rhythm. The -18.2% ROI on overs indicates the market hasn't fully adjusted to this trend, while the +9.1% under ROI demonstrates sustainable profit potential. The current two-game under streak aligns with the broader pattern, and notably, Siakam has experienced extended cold stretches with his longest under run reaching nine games. This isn't merely variance—it reflects how one day of rest impacts his three-point volume and efficiency. The 42.9% over rate is significantly below the 52.4% break-even threshold needed for standard -110 odds, creating a mathematical edge that compounds over time. Without additional context suggesting this trend is weakening, the data strongly supports continued under betting in these rest scenarios.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 42.9% over rate and +9.1% under ROI create a sustainable edge, though the sample size demands measured expectations. Target this bet when Siakam faces defensive-minded opponents or in lower-paced games where his three-point attempts naturally decrease. The primary risk is regression toward his season average, but the consistency of this rest-based pattern outweighs mean reversion concerns.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-02 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-03-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-03-19 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-16 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-05 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-03 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-24 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-18 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Pascal Siakam's 3-Pointers Made prop record 1 day rest?
Pascal Siakam goes 12-16-0 over/under on Three Pointers Made props with one day rest, hitting overs just 42.9% of the time across 28 games. This creates a clear mathematical edge for under bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Pascal Siakam 3-Pointers Made 1 day rest?
Bet the under on Siakam's Three Pointers Made with one day rest. The 42.9% over rate and +9.1% under ROI provide consistent value, especially when he faces strong perimeter defenses or slower-paced opponents.
What's Pascal Siakam's average 3-Pointers Made 1 day rest?
Siakam averages exactly 1.0 three-pointers made on one day rest, which falls 0.1 short of the typical 1.07 line. This small but consistent gap creates the foundation for profitable under betting.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Siakam's three-point unders specifically on one day rest against defensive teams or in lower-paced matchups. Avoid when he faces weak perimeter defenses or in potential shootouts where volume could spike unexpectedly.