Pascal Siakam has been a steals machine this season, hitting the over in 25 of 42 games (59.5%) while averaging 0.88 steals against a 0.57 line. The +0.31 differential represents significant value that books haven't properly adjusted for, generating a strong +13.6% ROI on overs.
Expert Analysis
Siakam's steals success stems from his transition from Toronto's defensive system to Indiana's more aggressive scheme that emphasizes disrupting passing lanes. His 6-foot-9 frame and improved anticipation allow him to jump routes effectively, particularly when the Pacers push pace and create more possessions. The 0.88 average against a consistently low 0.57 line suggests books are undervaluing his defensive impact in Indiana's system. The sample size of 42 games provides statistical significance, while his current two-game over streak aligns with his season-long pattern of clustering steals performances. Most encouraging is the sustainability factor - Siakam's steal rate isn't dependent on unsustainable hot shooting or usage spikes, but rather on defensive positioning and effort level that should remain consistent. The longest over streak of six games demonstrates his ceiling, while the modest three-game under streak suggests limited downside risk. His role as a primary defender against versatile forwards creates natural steal opportunities through deflections and recoveries. The key concern is potential regression as opponents game-plan around his tendencies, but Indiana's pace-heavy style should continue generating the possessions needed to maintain this edge.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Siakam's 0.88 average significantly exceeds the typical 0.57 line, creating a mathematical edge that books haven't corrected. The 59.5% hit rate over 42 games suggests genuine skill rather than variance. Target games where Indiana faces turnover-prone opponents or up-tempo matchups that increase possession count. Main risk is books eventually adjusting the line upward, so capitalize while this inefficiency persists.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-02 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-16 | OPP | 0.5 | 4.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-05 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-03 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-01 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-18 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Pascal Siakam's Steals prop record all games?
Siakam has gone over his steals prop in 25 of 42 games this season (59.5%), with 17 unders and no pushes. His consistent performance above the line has generated a profitable +13.6% ROI for over bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Pascal Siakam Steals all games?
Bet the over on Siakam's steals props. His 0.88 season average significantly exceeds the typical 0.57 line, creating a mathematical edge. The 59.5% hit rate over 42 games suggests this is skill-based, not luck.
What's Pascal Siakam's average Steals all games?
Siakam averages 0.88 steals per game this season, which is 0.31 steals above the typical 0.57 line. This substantial differential explains his 59.5% over rate and represents genuine value in the market.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Siakam steals overs when Indiana faces turnover-prone teams or in up-tempo matchups that increase possessions. His defensive positioning in Indiana's aggressive scheme creates consistent opportunities regardless of game script or opponent strength.