Pascal Siakam's assist props at home present a clear under opportunity, hitting just 31.8% overs across 22 games with a -0.2 differential versus the line. The 7-15-0 record and +30.2% under ROI signal consistent value on the downside for home contests.
Expert Analysis
Siakam's assist struggles at home reflect a fundamental shift in his role within Indiana's offensive ecosystem. Averaging 3.55 assists versus a 3.73 line, he's consistently falling short of market expectations on his home floor. The -39.3% over ROI tells the story of inflated lines that haven't adjusted to his reduced playmaking responsibilities as a secondary scorer behind Tyrese Haliburton. At home, the Pacers likely lean more heavily on their established offensive hierarchy, limiting Siakam's need to create for others compared to his Toronto days where he was the primary facilitator. The current five-game under streak isn't an anomaly but rather the continuation of a sustainable pattern. Siakam's assist production has become more predictable and constrained, particularly in familiar home settings where Indiana's offensive flow is most refined. The consistency of this underperformance across 22 games suggests this isn't variance but a structural reality of his current role. Books appear slow to adjust, creating persistent value on unders when the line sits above 3.5 assists.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Siakam's 31.8% over rate and consistent underperformance versus the line create sustainable value on home unders. Target this when the line is 3.5 or higher, as his 3.55 average provides a comfortable margin. The main risk is an outlier game where Indiana's offense stagnates and forces Siakam into extended playmaking duties.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-02 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-03-19 | OPP | 2.5 | 5.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2025-02-24 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-05 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-01 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 3.5 | 6.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-18 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-16 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-13 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-07 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-28 | OPP | 3.5 | 5.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-26 | OPP | 3.5 | 6.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-25 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Pascal Siakam's Assists prop record home games?
Siakam's assist prop record in home games stands at 7-15-0 over/under, hitting just 31.8% overs. He averages 3.55 assists per home game against typical lines around 3.73, creating a -0.2 differential that favors under bettors consistently.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Pascal Siakam Assists home games?
Bet under on Siakam's assist props at home. The 31.8% over rate and +30.2% under ROI create clear value, especially when lines sit at 3.5 or higher. His reduced playmaking role makes this a sustainable edge.
What's Pascal Siakam's average Assists home games?
Siakam averages 3.55 assists in home games, running 0.18 assists below the typical 3.73 line. This consistent shortfall across 22 games indicates his assist production is lower than market expectations in familiar home settings.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Siakam assist unders when he's at home and the line is 3.5 or higher. Avoid during potential blowouts where garbage time could inflate assists, and be cautious if Haliburton is injured and playmaking duties shift.