Onyeka Okongwu has cleared the three-pointers made line just 40% of the time over his last 10 games, going 4-6-0 over/under despite averaging 1.0 makes against a 0.5 line. The under has delivered a +14.6% ROI while overs have lost -23.6%, creating a clear edge on the under despite his current three-game over streak.
Expert Analysis
Okongwu's three-point prop presents a fascinating case study in variance versus expectation. Despite averaging 1.0 makes per game against a 0.5 line—theoretically favoring overs—the under has been the profitable play with a +14.6% ROI. This disconnect suggests the market is pricing in his improved three-point shooting without fully accounting for game-to-game volatility. As a center who primarily operates in the paint, Okongwu's three-point attempts remain situational, often coming from open looks when defenses collapse on Trae Young drives or during garbage time. His current three-game over streak might actually signal regression is due, as centers rarely maintain consistent perimeter shooting over extended periods. The 40% over rate indicates that while Okongwu has expanded his range, the consistency required to beat these props regularly isn't there yet. His role as a rim-runner and defensive anchor means three-point attempts aren't central to his game plan, making these props more dependent on game flow and matchups than skill level. The sample size of 10 games provides meaningful data without being overly influenced by small hot or cold streaks.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Despite Okongwu averaging 1.0 makes against a 0.5 line, the 40% over rate and +14.6% under ROI reveal market inefficiency. Centers struggle with three-point consistency, and his current three-game over streak suggests regression is coming. Target this prop when he's facing elite interior defenses that might force more perimeter looks, as those games often feature lower pace and fewer quality attempts.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-06 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2025-03-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2025-03-18 | OPP | 0.5 | 3.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2025-03-06 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-02-23 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-02-08 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-02-05 | OPP | 0.5 | 3.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2025-02-01 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Onyeka Okongwu's 3-Pointers Made prop record last 10 games?
Okongwu has gone 4-6-0 over/under on his three-pointers made prop in his last 10 games, hitting just 40% of overs. He's averaging 1.0 makes per game against the typical 0.5 line, but the under has been more profitable.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Onyeka Okongwu 3-Pointers Made last 10 games?
Lean under on Okongwu's three-pointers made props. Despite averaging 1.0 makes against a 0.5 line, the 40% over rate and +14.6% under ROI show the market hasn't properly adjusted for his inconsistency as a situational three-point shooter.
What's Onyeka Okongwu's average 3-Pointers Made last 10 games?
Okongwu averages 1.0 three-pointers made over his last 10 games against a typical line of 0.5. This +0.5 differential favors overs mathematically, but game-to-game variance has made unders more profitable at 60% hit rate.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Okongwu three-point unders when he faces elite interior defenses or in lower-paced games. His attempts are situational rather than systematic, making props more dependent on game flow than his improved shooting ability from beyond the arc.