Obi Toppin's steals prop presents a clear under edge with a dismal 30% over rate across his last 10 games. The Indiana forward averages just 0.4 steals against a 0.5 line, creating a consistent -0.1 differential that has delivered +33.6% ROI on unders.
Expert Analysis
Toppin's steal production reflects his role as a floor-spacing power forward rather than a disruptive defensive presence. At 6'9" with limited lateral quickness, he's positioned primarily in help defense and corner rotations where steal opportunities are scarce. His 0.4 average represents exactly what you'd expect from a player whose defensive value comes from rim protection and rebounding, not gambling in passing lanes. The 7-game under streak that dominated this sample wasn't an anomaly—it was Toppin playing his natural role. Even his recent 2-game over streak likely represents variance rather than a fundamental shift, as his defensive positioning and responsibilities haven't changed. The Pacers utilize Toppin as a stretch-four who spaces the floor offensively and provides help defense, not as a perimeter disruptor. His steal rate aligns with other modern power forwards who prioritize team defense over individual statistics. The consistency of this under trend—hitting 70% of the time with strong ROI—suggests this isn't random variance but rather a fundamental mismatch between the betting line and Toppin's actual role.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Toppin's defensive role as a help defender rather than perimeter disruptor creates a natural ceiling on steal production that the 0.5 line fails to account for. The 70% under rate with +33.6% ROI reflects this systematic edge. Target this prop when Toppin faces slower-paced opponents or teams that limit transition opportunities, as these conditions further reduce steal chances for a player already unlikely to reach the number.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-15 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-11 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-07 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-04 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-30 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Obi Toppin's Steals prop record last 10 games?
Toppin went 3-7-0 on steals overs in his last 10 games, hitting just 30% of over bets. This represents a strong under trend with 7 games staying below the typical 0.5 line, including a dominant 7-game under streak.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Obi Toppin Steals last 10 games?
Bet the under on Toppin's steals props. His 70% under rate and +33.6% under ROI over 10 games reflects his role as a help defender rather than steal-generating perimeter player, creating consistent value on unders.
What's Obi Toppin's average Steals last 10 games?
Toppin averaged 0.4 steals over his last 10 games, falling 0.1 short of the standard 0.5 line. This negative differential has been remarkably consistent, reflecting his defensive positioning and role within Indiana's system.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Toppin's steals unders against slower-paced teams or when Indiana faces methodical halfcourt offenses. These conditions minimize transition opportunities and passing lane disruptions where his limited steal chances would typically occur.