Obi Toppin has quietly delivered 60% over rate across his last 10 games, averaging 11.3 points against 10.9 lines for a modest +0.4 differential. The +14.6% ROI on overs suggests sustainable value, making this a lean over situation with measured expectations.
Expert Analysis
Toppin's 6-4 over record reflects his evolving role in Indiana's rotation, where he's consistently finding ways to exceed modest expectations. The +0.4 differential between his 11.3 average and 10.9 typical line suggests oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted to his recent production level. His ability to contribute in multiple ways - transition buckets, spot-up threes, and putbacks - creates multiple scoring avenues that make him less dependent on game script than pure role players. The 60% hit rate isn't overwhelming, but it's meaningful over 10 games, especially when paired with positive ROI. The key concern is sample size volatility and Indiana's depth, which could limit minutes in blowouts. However, Toppin's energy and versatility often keep him on the floor even when the Pacers are cruising. His recent consistency suggests he's found a sustainable scoring rhythm within the system, making the slight over lean justified despite the modest edge.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Toppin's 60% over rate and +14.6% ROI indicate sustainable value against lines that haven't fully caught up to his recent production. The +0.4 differential suggests oddsmakers are still undervaluing his contributions. Best spots are games where Indiana needs bench scoring or when pace favors his transition game. Main risk is minute volatility in blowouts.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-29 | OPP | 9.5 | 12.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 9.5 | 7.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-12 | OPP | 8.5 | 10.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-20 | OPP | 10.5 | 6.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-15 | OPP | 10.5 | 16.0 | +5.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-13 | OPP | 11.5 | 5.0 | -6.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-11 | OPP | 13.5 | 6.0 | -7.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-07 | OPP | 12.5 | 14.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-04 | OPP | 11.5 | 12.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-30 | OPP | 11.5 | 25.0 | +13.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Obi Toppin's Points prop record last 10 games?
Toppin has gone over his points prop in 6 of his last 10 games (60% rate), averaging 11.3 points against typical lines around 10.9. This 6-4-0 record has generated a +14.6% ROI for over bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Obi Toppin Points last 10 games?
Lean over on Toppin's points props. His 60% hit rate and positive ROI suggest oddsmakers are undervaluing his recent production by about 0.4 points per game, creating sustainable value for patient bettors.
What's Obi Toppin's average Points last 10 games?
Toppin is averaging 11.3 points over his last 10 games compared to typical lines of 10.9, creating a +0.4 differential. This gap suggests his recent production level exceeds market expectations consistently.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Toppin overs when Indiana faces uptempo opponents or needs bench scoring. Avoid in potential blowouts where his minutes could be limited. Games with competitive spreads offer the most reliable minute floors.