Nikola Vučević has hit the steals over in just 40.0% of his last 10 games, going 4-6-0 against the 0.5 line despite averaging 0.6 steals per game. The under has generated a solid 14.6% ROI while overs have lost -23.6%. This presents a clear lean toward the under.
Expert Analysis
Vučević's steal production over the last 10 games reveals a classic case of market inefficiency where the numbers tell a different story than perception. While his 0.6 average slightly exceeds the typical 0.5 line, the distribution heavily favors lower outcomes. Centers traditionally struggle with steal production due to their positioning in drop coverage and rim protection responsibilities, and Vučević exemplifies this limitation. His defensive role keeps him anchored near the basket rather than in passing lanes where steals naturally occur. The 40% over rate indicates that even when Vučević records a steal, he rarely accumulates multiple steals in a single game. The market appears to be pricing in occasional defensive activity spikes that simply don't materialize consistently for a player of his size and defensive assignment. Chicago's defensive scheme further limits his steal opportunities, as the Bulls typically ask Vučević to focus on rebounding and interior defense rather than gambling for steals. The recent streak data showing longer under runs (3 games) compared to over streaks (2 games) reinforces this pattern. Most importantly, the significant ROI differential (-23.6% vs +14.6%) suggests this isn't random variance but a sustainable edge rooted in his defensive role and physical limitations.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 14.6% ROI on unders combined with the 60% hit rate creates a clear mathematical edge despite Vučević averaging slightly above the line. Centers simply don't generate consistent steal production, and his defensive positioning limits upside. The ideal bet comes when the line stays at 0.5, as his role-based limitations make multiple-steal games unlikely. The main risk is occasional defensive activity spikes, but the data suggests these are outliers rather than sustainable patterns.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-02 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-11 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-07 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-05 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-01 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-31 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Nikola Vučević's Steals prop record last 10 games?
Vučević has gone 4-6-0 on steals overs in his last 10 games, hitting just 40.0% of over bets. He's averaging 0.6 steals against a typical 0.5 line, but the under has been the profitable side with a 14.6% ROI.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Nikola Vučević Steals last 10 games?
Bet the under on Vučević steals. The 60% under rate and 14.6% ROI create a clear edge despite his 0.6 average. Centers struggle with consistent steal production due to defensive positioning, making unders the smart play.
What's Nikola Vučević's average Steals last 10 games?
Vučević is averaging 0.6 steals over his last 10 games, which is 0.1 above the typical 0.5 line. However, this slight edge is misleading as 60% of his games have gone under, indicating poor distribution for overs.
How reliable is this trend?
Bet Vučević steals unders when the line is 0.5, especially in games where Chicago faces high-pace opponents that might tempt the market to inflate the line. His center position naturally limits steal upside regardless of game flow.