Nikola Jović has been a consistent three-point performer, hitting the over in 8 of 12 games (66.7%) while averaging 1.83 makes against a 1.25 line. The +0.6 differential and 27.3% ROI on overs suggests the market is undervaluing his shooting volume. This trend leans over.
Expert Analysis
The market appears to be systematically underpricing Nikola Jović's three-point output, creating a sustainable edge for over bettors. His 1.83 average against a 1.25 line represents a significant 46% premium over expectations, suggesting either increased role or improved shooting mechanics that oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted for. The 66.7% over rate across 12 games provides a meaningful sample size, while the impressive 27.3% ROI indicates this isn't just variance but a genuine market inefficiency. Miami's pace and style of play likely contribute to Jović's increased three-point opportunities, particularly as the team has embraced more position-less basketball. The consistency is notable - with only one game under streak maximum, Jović appears to have found his shooting rhythm. However, the limited split data prevents deeper situational analysis, and regression remains a constant threat when a player significantly outperforms market expectations. The key question is whether this represents a new baseline for Jović's three-point volume or an unsustainable hot streak that will eventually correct.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. The 46% differential between Jović's actual output (1.83) and the line (1.25) suggests meaningful market mispricing rather than random variance. The 8-4 record with strong ROI supports continued over betting, particularly given Miami's system that encourages three-point shooting from forwards. Main risk is natural regression to his career baseline, but current form indicates an expanded role that justifies the higher volume.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 12 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-01 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-06 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-26 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 1.5 | 5.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-07 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-04 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-02 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-31 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-26 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-24 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Nikola Jović's 3-Pointers Made prop record all games?
Nikola Jović has hit the over on his Three Pointers Made prop in 8 of 12 games (66.7% rate) from March 2024 through February 2025, generating a strong 27.3% ROI for over bettors during this span.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Nikola Jović 3-Pointers Made all games?
Bet the over on Nikola Jović's Three Pointers Made props. His 1.83 average significantly exceeds the typical 1.25 line, creating a 46% value differential that has produced consistent profits with an 8-4 record and 27.3% ROI.
What's Nikola Jović's average 3-Pointers Made all games?
Nikola Jović averages 1.83 Three Pointers Made per game across his last 12 contests, which is 0.6 makes above the standard 1.25 line. This 46% premium over market expectations has driven the strong over performance.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Nikola Jović Three Pointers Made overs when the line is set at 1.5 or lower, as his 1.83 average provides maximum value. Miami's up-tempo games and position-less lineups create the best conditions for his increased three-point volume.