Nick Richards blocks props on one day rest present a compelling under opportunity, hitting just 26.1% overs across 23 games with a brutal -0.4 differential versus the line. The under has delivered +41.1% ROI while overs hemorrhage at -50.2%. This is a strong lean under situation.
Expert Analysis
The data reveals a systematic overvaluation of Nick Richards blocks production following single-day rest periods. His 0.91 average falls consistently short of the typical 1.33 line, creating a significant 0.4-block gap that bettors can exploit. This isn't marginal underperformance—it's a pattern spanning nearly six months of action. The 26.1% over rate suggests oddsmakers haven't properly adjusted for Richards's reduced rim protection on abbreviated rest. Charlotte's pace and defensive schemes likely contribute, as the Hornets often struggle to generate consistent shot-blocking opportunities for their backup center. The seven-game under streak within this sample demonstrates how persistent this trend can be, while the current one-game over streak appears to be noise rather than a meaningful shift. Richards's role as a situational player means his minutes and defensive impact fluctuate based on matchups and game flow, but the rest factor appears to consistently diminish his shot-blocking effectiveness. The sample size of 23 games provides statistical significance, and the ROI differential between overs and unders is too substantial to ignore. This represents a clear market inefficiency where books continue setting lines that favor under bettors.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 26.1% over rate and -0.4 differential create a measurable edge, supported by +41.1% under ROI. Target this spot when Richards faces teams that don't heavily attack the rim or in faster-paced games where defensive rotations suffer. The primary risk is Charlotte's inconsistent rotations potentially boosting his minutes unexpectedly, but the pattern strongly favors under betting.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-03-31 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-15 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-13 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-11 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-25 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-14 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-12 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-09 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-07 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-04 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Nick Richards's Blocks prop record 1 day rest?
Nick Richards has gone 6-17-0 on blocks overs with one day rest, hitting just 26.1% across 23 games from December 2023 through March 2024. The under has been profitable at +41.1% ROI while overs lose at -50.2%.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Nick Richards Blocks 1 day rest?
Bet under on Nick Richards blocks with one day rest. The 0.91 average versus 1.33 typical lines creates a consistent 0.4-block edge, supported by strong under ROI and a clear pattern of market overvaluation.
What's Nick Richards's average Blocks 1 day rest?
Richards averages 0.91 blocks on one day rest compared to the standard 1.33 line, creating a significant -0.4 differential. This gap has persisted across 23 games, indicating systematic underperformance rather than random variance.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Nick Richards blocks unders specifically on one day rest situations, especially against teams that don't attack the rim aggressively. Avoid when Charlotte faces interior-heavy offenses that might force extended minutes and more defensive opportunities.