Nick Richards has been a blocks prop disaster over his last 10 games, hitting the over just 30% of the time while averaging 0.6 blocks against a 1.3 line. The under has delivered a solid 33.6% ROI with Richards consistently falling short of expectations. This represents a clear fade opportunity.
Expert Analysis
Richards' blocks production has cratered during this 10-game stretch, creating one of the more reliable under trends in the NBA. His 0.6 blocks per game average sits a massive 0.7 blocks below the typical 1.3 line, indicating either the market hasn't adjusted to his diminished rim protection or there are underlying factors limiting his defensive impact. The 30% over rate with a brutal -42.7% ROI on overs tells the story of a player consistently disappointing blocks bettors. What makes this trend particularly compelling is the consistency - Richards managed just one over in his last 10 games with a longest under streak of four games. This suggests systematic issues rather than random variance. The lack of available split data limits deeper context, but the raw numbers point to either reduced minutes, different defensive schemes, or matchup-driven struggles. Charlotte's defensive positioning and pace of play likely factor into Richards' reduced shot-blocking opportunities. The concerning element is how dramatically his production has fallen below market expectations, suggesting either injury concerns, role changes, or simply poor form that the betting market hasn't fully recognized.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Richards' 0.7 blocks below the line average and 70% under rate over 10 games creates clear value on the under. The trend shows consistency rather than random variance, with only one over in the entire sample. Target this when the line sits at 1.5 or higher, as Richards has shown little ability to reach those thresholds. Main risk is potential role expansion or easier matchups that could boost his defensive opportunities.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-03-31 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-23 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-19 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-16 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-15 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-13 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-11 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Nick Richards's Blocks prop record last 10 games?
Nick Richards has gone 3-7 on blocks overs in his last 10 games, hitting just 30% of over bets. He's averaged only 0.6 blocks per game while the typical line sits around 1.3, creating a significant -0.7 differential that favors under bettors consistently.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Nick Richards Blocks last 10 games?
Bet the under on Nick Richards blocks props. His 70% under rate and +33.6% ROI on unders over the last 10 games creates clear value. He's averaging 0.7 blocks below the typical line, making under bets the obvious play until this trend reverses.
What's Nick Richards's average Blocks last 10 games?
Nick Richards is averaging just 0.6 blocks per game over his last 10 contests, well below the typical 1.3 line. This -0.7 differential represents one of the larger gaps between production and market expectations, creating consistent under value for sharp bettors.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Nick Richards blocks unders when the line is set at 1.5 or higher, as he's shown little ability to reach those thresholds recently. Avoid betting when he faces teams with limited interior offense, as easier matchups could potentially boost his shot-blocking opportunities.