Myles Turner's steals prop at home presents a perfectly balanced 14-14 record against the 0.5 line, with his 0.57 average creating a slight edge toward overs. The minimal 0.1 differential and negative ROI on both sides suggest this is a coin flip market with little exploitable value.
Expert Analysis
Turner's home steals production reveals a market operating at near-perfect efficiency, with his 50% over rate matching random chance expectations. The 0.57 average against a 0.5 line creates theoretical value for overs, but the -4.5% ROI on both sides indicates the juice is eating any edge. As a rim-protecting center, Turner's steal opportunities are naturally limited compared to perimeter defenders who can jump passing lanes more frequently. His defensive positioning focuses on deterring shots at the basket rather than creating turnovers in space. The balanced 28-game sample suggests this isn't a market inefficiency but rather accurate pricing by oddsmakers who understand Turner's defensive role. The recent under streak of one game provides no meaningful pattern, especially given the longest streaks only reached five games in either direction. Without significant splits data showing performance variations based on opponent pace, rest, or other factors, this appears to be a prop where Turner's role and skill set create consistent, predictable output that the market has properly calibrated.
Betting Verdict
PASS with LOW confidence. While Turner's 0.57 average technically favors overs against the 0.5 line, the perfectly balanced record and negative ROI on both sides indicate this market offers no sustainable edge. The minimal differential suggests oddsmakers have accurately priced Turner's steal production based on his rim-protecting role, making this a break-even proposition at best after accounting for juice.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-05 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-01 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-18 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-16 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-07 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-28 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-08 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-06 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Myles Turner's Steals prop record home games?
Turner has gone 14-14 on steals overs in 28 home games, hitting exactly 50% against the typical 0.5 line. His perfectly balanced record with a -4.5% ROI on both sides shows no exploitable edge.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Myles Turner Steals home games?
Pass on Turner's steals props at home. The 14-14 record and negative ROI on both sides indicate this is a coin flip market where the juice eliminates any theoretical edge from his 0.57 average.
What's Myles Turner's average Steals home games?
Turner averages 0.57 steals per game at home, which is 0.1 above the standard 0.5 line. However, this minimal differential hasn't translated to profitable betting opportunities given the balanced 14-14 record.
How reliable is this trend?
Avoid betting Turner's steals props entirely. His rim-protecting role creates consistent but limited steal production that oddsmakers price accurately, offering no sustainable edge regardless of opponent or game situation.