Myles Turner's steals prop presents a clear under opportunity with a dismal 39.6% over rate across 53 games. The Indiana center averages exactly 0.49 steals against a 0.5 line, delivering consistent under value with +15.3% ROI. This is a high-conviction under play.
Expert Analysis
Turner's steals trend reflects the reality of his defensive role and physical limitations as a rim-protecting center. At 6'11", Turner's primary defensive responsibility centers around paint protection rather than perimeter disruption where steals typically occur. His 0.49 average sits just below the standard 0.5 line, creating a mathematical edge that compounds over time. The 8-game under streak in his sample demonstrates how consistently Turner fails to generate the defensive activity books expect. Centers traditionally struggle with steal props because they're anchored near the basket, limiting their ability to jump passing lanes or pressure ball handlers. Turner's game logs show remarkable consistency in this regard - he's not a defensive playmaker who creates turnovers through active hands or anticipation. The Pacers' defensive scheme further limits his steal opportunities, as they rely on Turner's shot-blocking presence rather than asking him to gamble for steals. With only 21 overs in 53 games, this isn't variance - it's a fundamental mismatch between Turner's skill set and the betting line. The negative differential between his average and the line, combined with the strong under ROI, suggests books haven't properly adjusted to Turner's limited steal production.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Turner's 39.6% over rate and consistent 0.49 average create a sustainable edge against the 0.5 line. The mathematical advantage is clear, but the small margin requires careful line shopping. Avoid if the line drops to 0.5 (-130 or worse), as the juice negates the edge. Best played at standard -110 pricing when available.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-05 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-01 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-18 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-16 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
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Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Myles Turner's Steals prop record all games?
Turner's steals prop record shows 21 overs and 32 unders across 53 games for a 39.6% over rate. The under has produced +15.3% ROI while overs lose -24.4%, demonstrating clear directional value.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Myles Turner Steals all games?
Bet under on Turner's steals props. His 0.49 average sits below the typical 0.5 line, and centers historically struggle with steal production due to their rim protection responsibilities rather than perimeter disruption.
What's Myles Turner's average Steals all games?
Turner averages 0.49 steals per game, sitting 0.01 below the standard 0.5 line. This small but consistent differential has produced profitable under results across his 53-game sample with strong ROI.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Turner steals unders at standard -110 pricing when the line sits at 0.5. Avoid if books adjust the line lower or increase under juice beyond -120, as this eliminates the mathematical edge.