Mitchell Robinson's points props have been an under bettor's dream, hitting at just 30.0% over the last 10 games with a brutal -42.7% ROI on overs. Currently riding a three-game under streak, Robinson's 7.2 points per game sits exactly at his typical line. This presents a clear lean toward the under.
Expert Analysis
Mitchell Robinson's offensive limitations are being ruthlessly exposed by the betting market. The 7-foot center's 30.0% over rate reflects his narrow offensive role within the Knicks' system, where he primarily functions as a rim-runner and putback specialist rather than a focal point scorer. His inability to create his own shot or operate in the post limits his ceiling, making him entirely dependent on teammates for scoring opportunities. The fact that his 7.2 points per game sits exactly at market expectations suggests oddsmakers have properly calibrated his limited offensive upside. Robinson's three-game under streak isn't an anomaly—it's a reflection of his role as a defensive anchor who contributes minimally on offense. The center's scoring comes almost exclusively from dunks, layups, and offensive rebounds, making him vulnerable to game scripts where the Knicks struggle offensively or face teams that limit second-chance opportunities. His lack of a mid-range game or free-throw reliability (career 56.8% shooter) means he rarely exceeds expectations through volume. The consistency of his underperformance suggests this isn't variance but rather a market inefficiency where casual bettors overvalue his size and athleticism while ignoring his offensive limitations.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Robinson's 30.0% over rate and current three-game under streak reflect his limited offensive role rather than temporary regression. The center's inability to create shots and reliance on teammates for scoring opportunities makes him a consistent under play. Target unders when the Knicks face strong interior defenses or in games with slower projected pace, but avoid when New York is heavily favored and likely to generate easy transition buckets.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-11-30 | OPP | 6.5 | 6.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-28 | OPP | 7.5 | 6.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-26 | OPP | 6.5 | 3.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-20 | OPP | 6.5 | 10.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-17 | OPP | 7.5 | 6.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-15 | OPP | 6.5 | 6.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-13 | OPP | 6.5 | 4.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-12 | OPP | 7.5 | 10.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-08 | OPP | 9.5 | 8.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-06 | OPP | 7.5 | 13.0 | +5.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Mitchell Robinson's Points prop record last 10 games?
Mitchell Robinson has gone over his points prop just 3 times in his last 10 games (30.0% rate), with a record of 3-7-0. His average of 7.2 points per game has resulted in a devastating -42.7% ROI for over bettors during this stretch.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Mitchell Robinson Points last 10 games?
Bet the under on Mitchell Robinson's points props. His 30.0% over rate and current three-game under streak reflect his limited offensive role. The market consistently overvalues his scoring potential, making unders the sharp play with his 7.2 points exactly matching typical lines.
What's Mitchell Robinson's average Points last 10 games?
Mitchell Robinson is averaging exactly 7.2 points per game over his last 10 contests, which perfectly aligns with his typical betting line of 7.2. This zero differential suggests the market has accurately priced his limited offensive contributions within the Knicks' system.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Mitchell Robinson points unders when the Knicks face strong interior defenses or in slower-paced games where his limited shot creation becomes more apparent. Avoid unders when New York is heavily favored, as blowouts can generate easy transition scoring opportunities for the athletic center.