Mitchell Robinson's points prop presents a clear under opportunity with just 37.5% overs across 16 games this season. Robinson averages 6.44 points against a 7.0 line, creating a significant 0.6-point edge. The under delivers 19.3% ROI while overs lose 28.4%.
Expert Analysis
Mitchell Robinson's scoring struggles stem from his evolving role in New York's offense and the natural limitations of his skill set. The 6-10 over/under record reflects a fundamental mismatch between market expectations and Robinson's actual offensive production. His 6.44 average against the 7.0 line isn't just bad luck—it's systematic underperformance driven by limited offensive touches and inconsistent minutes. Robinson's value comes primarily through rim protection and rebounding, not scoring, yet the market continues to price his points props as if he's a regular offensive contributor. The current three-game under streak aligns with his season-long pattern rather than representing an anomaly. Robinson's offensive limitations become more pronounced when the Knicks face quality interior defense or when game flow doesn't favor easy dunks and putbacks. His scoring depends heavily on assisted baskets and offensive rebounds, making him vulnerable to defensive schemes that prioritize limiting second-chance opportunities. The 28.4% loss rate on overs suggests the market has been slow to adjust to Robinson's reduced offensive role this season.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Robinson's 37.5% over rate and negative 0.6-point differential create a sustainable edge for under bettors. The 19.3% ROI on unders demonstrates market inefficiency that persists due to Robinson's reputation. Target games where the Knicks face strong interior defense or when Robinson's minutes might be limited by foul trouble or matchup concerns.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-11-30 | OPP | 6.5 | 6.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-28 | OPP | 7.5 | 6.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-26 | OPP | 6.5 | 3.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-20 | OPP | 6.5 | 10.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-17 | OPP | 7.5 | 6.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-15 | OPP | 6.5 | 6.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-13 | OPP | 6.5 | 4.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-12 | OPP | 7.5 | 10.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-08 | OPP | 9.5 | 8.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-06 | OPP | 7.5 | 13.0 | +5.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-03 | OPP | 6.5 | 0.0 | -6.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-01 | OPP | 6.5 | 6.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-31 | OPP | 6.5 | 8.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-28 | OPP | 6.5 | 8.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-27 | OPP | 6.5 | 7.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Mitchell Robinson's Points prop record all games?
Mitchell Robinson's points prop record shows 6 overs and 10 unders across 16 games this season, hitting just 37.5% of overs. He averages 6.44 points against typical 7.0 lines, consistently falling short by 0.6 points per game.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Mitchell Robinson Points all games?
Bet under on Mitchell Robinson's points props. His 37.5% over rate and 19.3% ROI on unders create a clear edge. Robinson consistently underperforms his lines due to limited offensive role and market overvaluation of his scoring ability.
What's Mitchell Robinson's average Points all games?
Mitchell Robinson averages 6.44 points per game this season, which falls 0.6 points below the typical 7.0 line. This negative differential has been consistent across his 16-game sample, creating value for under bettors.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Mitchell Robinson under bets when the Knicks face strong interior defenses or quality rim protectors. Games with slower pace or when Robinson faces foul trouble concerns also favor unders, as his scoring depends on easy baskets.