Mike Conley's blocks prop presents a compelling under opportunity, hitting just 20% over rates across his last 10 games with a devastating -61.8% ROI on overs. His 0.3 blocks per game average sits 0.2 blocks below the typical 0.5 line, creating consistent value on unders.
Expert Analysis
Conley's blocks production has cratered in this sample, reflecting his evolution into a pure facilitator role at age 36. Point guards naturally record fewer blocks than other positions, and Conley's 6'1" frame limits his ability to disrupt passing lanes against taller opponents. The 0.3 average represents a significant decline from his career norms, suggesting this isn't random variance but a fundamental shift in his defensive impact. His role prioritizes floor spacing and playmaking over aggressive defensive gambles that generate blocks. The 8-game under streak within this sample demonstrates remarkable consistency, broken only by a single outlier performance. Minnesota's defensive scheme emphasizes team concepts over individual stat-stuffing, further limiting Conley's block opportunities. The -0.2 differential between his average and the standard line creates a mathematical edge that compounds over multiple bets. Regression concerns are minimal given his age, role, and physical limitations. The sample size of 10 games provides sufficient data to identify a legitimate trend rather than small-sample noise. Conley's veteran approach focuses on positioning and team defense rather than the high-risk, high-reward plays that generate blocks for younger guards.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Conley's blocks production has fundamentally shifted due to age, role, and scheme, making the standard 0.5 line consistently inflated. The 80% under rate and +52.7% ROI demonstrate clear market inefficiency. Target this prop when the line sits at 0.5, especially in games where Minnesota faces smaller backcourts that limit block opportunities. The primary risk is a single outlier performance, but the underlying factors support continued under performance.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-07 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-05 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-02 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-31 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-24 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-18 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Mike Conley's Blocks prop record last 10 games?
Conley went 2-8-0 over/under on blocks props in his last 10 games, hitting just 20% overs with a brutal -61.8% ROI for over bettors while unders returned +52.7%.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Mike Conley Blocks last 10 games?
Bet the UNDER with high confidence. Conley's 0.3 blocks average sits 0.2 below the typical line, and his age/role shift makes this sustainable rather than temporary variance.
What's Mike Conley's average Blocks last 10 games?
Conley averaged 0.3 blocks over his last 10 games, running 0.2 blocks below the standard 0.5 line and creating consistent value for under bettors.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Conley blocks unders when the line sits at 0.5, particularly against smaller backcourts where his physical limitations are most pronounced and block opportunities remain scarce.