Mike Conley's assists prop away from home presents a marginal edge with 18 overs in 34 games (52.9%). His 5.94 average barely exceeds typical lines by 0.1 assists, creating minimal value despite the slight over tendency. Current five-game over streak suggests lean over.
Expert Analysis
Mike Conley's road assist production reveals a veteran point guard who maintains steady facilitation regardless of venue, though with slight uptick away from home. The 52.9% over rate across 34 games indicates modest but consistent value, particularly noteworthy given Conley's role as Minnesota's primary floor general. His 5.94 road average suggests books haven't fully adjusted to his away performance, creating small but exploitable line value. The current five-game over streak aligns with his season-long pattern, though regression remains possible given the narrow 0.1 differential. Conley's assist production benefits from Minnesota's improved pace and spacing on the road, where opponents often focus more heavily on containing Anthony Edwards and Karl-Anthony Towns, leaving Conley with cleaner passing lanes. However, the modest ROI differential (+1.1% over vs -10.2% under) suggests this edge is fragile and dependent on game flow. Road environments typically favor experienced guards like Conley who thrive in hostile settings, making this trend more sustainable than random variance.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Conley's 52.9% over rate and positive differential create modest value, particularly during his current five-game over streak. The veteran guard's road experience and Minnesota's improved offensive flow away from home support continued over production. Primary risk lies in the narrow 0.1 average differential, making this edge vulnerable to single poor shooting nights that limit assist opportunities.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-01 | OPP | 4.5 | 8.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2025-03-24 | OPP | 4.5 | 5.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2025-03-12 | OPP | 4.5 | 5.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-20 | OPP | 3.5 | 8.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 4.5 | 8.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-10 | OPP | 5.5 | 2.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-07 | OPP | 5.5 | 6.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-05 | OPP | 5.5 | 3.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 5.5 | 8.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-18 | OPP | 5.5 | 2.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-16 | OPP | 6.5 | 2.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-10 | OPP | 6.5 | 6.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-08 | OPP | 5.5 | 5.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-07 | OPP | 6.5 | 4.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-13 | OPP | 6.5 | 6.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Mike Conley's Assists prop record away games?
Mike Conley has hit the over on his assists prop in 18 of 34 away games this season (52.9%), with his 5.94 road average slightly exceeding typical line expectations.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Mike Conley Assists away games?
Lean over on Conley's road assists props. His 52.9% over rate and current five-game streak create modest value, though the narrow 0.1 differential limits upside potential.
What's Mike Conley's average Assists away games?
Conley averages 5.94 assists in away games, which runs 0.1 assists above typical line settings of 5.85, creating small but consistent value for over bettors.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Conley assists overs during road games against teams that focus heavily on Minnesota's scorers, allowing cleaner passing lanes for the veteran point guard's facilitation.