Mike Conley's assists prop shows marginal over value with a 53.0% hit rate across 66 games, though the edge is razor-thin at just +0.1 above the standard line. The modest +1.2% ROI on overs suggests a sustainable but limited advantage. Lean Over with selective betting.
Expert Analysis
Conley's assists profile reveals a veteran floor general operating within Minnesota's structured offensive system, where his 5.8 average sits just above the typical 5.73 line. The 53.0% over rate indicates books have calibrated this number fairly accurately, leaving minimal theoretical edge for bettors. What makes this trend noteworthy isn't the raw percentage but the consistency—Conley's role as Minnesota's primary facilitator creates a stable floor that the market occasionally undervalues by half an assist. The current three-game over streak aligns with his seasonal pattern of clustering good performances, though his equal five-game streaks in both directions show this isn't purely momentum-driven. The negative ROI on unders (-10.3%) suggests the market may be slightly underpricing his assist ceiling, particularly when Minnesota faces pace-up spots or when Anthony Edwards draws extra defensive attention. However, the thin margin for error means this edge exists primarily in specific game scripts rather than as a blanket betting strategy. Conley's veteran savvy in reading defenses and finding open teammates provides the foundation for modest over value.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. The 53.0% hit rate combined with positive ROI creates a slight edge, though it's not substantial enough for aggressive betting. Target spots where Minnesota faces uptempo opponents or when Conley's usage increases due to teammate absences. The main risk is the razor-thin margin—even small changes in game script or rotation can flip results. Best approached as part of a diversified prop portfolio rather than a standalone play.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-01 | OPP | 4.5 | 8.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2025-03-24 | OPP | 4.5 | 5.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2025-03-12 | OPP | 4.5 | 5.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2025-02-06 | OPP | 5.5 | 5.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-25 | OPP | 5.5 | 5.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-20 | OPP | 3.5 | 8.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-18 | OPP | 4.5 | 3.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-29 | OPP | 4.5 | 3.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 4.5 | 8.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-01 | OPP | 4.5 | 5.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 5.5 | 2.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-12 | OPP | 5.5 | 10.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-10 | OPP | 5.5 | 2.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 5.5 | 3.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-07 | OPP | 5.5 | 6.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Assists Prop Lines
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Mike Conley's Assists prop record all games?
Mike Conley has hit the over on his assists prop in 35 of 66 games (53.0%) with an under record of 31-35. His season-long sample shows consistent performance against a typically set 5.73 line across various sportsbooks.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Mike Conley Assists all games?
Lean toward betting over on Conley's assists props, but be selective. The 53.0% hit rate and +1.2% ROI provide a slight edge, though the margin is thin enough to require careful spot selection and bankroll management.
What's Mike Conley's average Assists all games?
Mike Conley averages 5.8 assists per game this season, sitting 0.1 assists above the typical line of 5.73. This small but consistent edge has translated to modest profitability for over bettors throughout the campaign.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Conley assists overs when Minnesota faces pace-up opponents or when key teammates are absent, increasing his usage. Avoid during back-to-back situations or against elite defensive teams that limit transition opportunities and half-court creation.