Mikal Bridges steals props show a compelling 58.3% over rate (14-10-0) with an average of 1.04 against a 0.79 line, creating a +0.25 differential that translates to +11.4% ROI on overs. This sustained edge across 24 games suggests consistent value on the over.
Expert Analysis
Bridges' steals production consistently exceeds market expectations due to his unique defensive profile and role within New York's system. The 1.04 average against a 0.79 line represents a significant 31.6% edge that has persisted across nearly two dozen games, indicating this isn't random variance but a systematic undervaluation. His length, anticipation skills, and positioning in passing lanes create natural steal opportunities that books appear to underestimate. The +11.4% ROI on overs demonstrates real profit potential, while the -20.4% under ROI confirms the market's consistent mispricing. What makes this trend particularly reliable is Bridges' defensive consistency - he doesn't have the wild swings typical of volume scorers, instead maintaining steady production that regularly hits modest steal totals. The 58.3% over rate across 24 games provides substantial sample size confidence. However, the recent 2-game under streak serves as a reminder that even strong trends face natural regression periods. Books may eventually adjust, but the current pricing suggests they're still catching up to Bridges' defensive impact in his new environment.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. The 58.3% over rate combined with +11.4% ROI creates legitimate value, especially given Bridges' consistent defensive role and the market's apparent undervaluation at 0.79. The 1.04 average provides a meaningful cushion above the line. Primary risk is the recent 2-game under streak potentially signaling regression, but the sample size and underlying defensive metrics support continued over production.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-06 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-03 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-01 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-23 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-19 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-13 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-04 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-02 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-05 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-31 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-23 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-19 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Mikal Bridges's Steals prop record all games?
Mikal Bridges has gone over his steals prop in 14 of 24 games (58.3%) while staying under 10 times. His 0-push record shows clean results with an average of 1.04 steals per game against a typical 0.79 line.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Mikal Bridges Steals all games?
Bet the over on Bridges steals props. The 58.3% over rate and +11.4% ROI demonstrate consistent value, with his 1.04 average providing a meaningful edge over the standard 0.79 line across 24 games.
What's Mikal Bridges's average Steals all games?
Bridges averages 1.04 steals per game, which sits 0.25 above the typical 0.79 line. This 31.6% differential has proven sustainable across 24 games, creating consistent value for over bettors.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Bridges steals overs when the line stays at 0.79 or below, as his 1.04 average creates natural value. Avoid during the current 2-game under streak until he shows signs of returning to form.