Michael Porter Jr.'s three-point prop shows complete neutrality over his last 10 games, hitting the over exactly 50% of the time with a 2.6 average against a 2.5 line. Despite the slight positive differential, both sides have generated identical -4.5% ROI, making this a clear pass in current market conditions.
Expert Analysis
Porter Jr.'s three-point production presents a textbook case of market efficiency, with his 2.6 average sitting just 0.1 makes above the standard 2.5 line. The 5-5 over/under split reflects a player whose shot volume and efficiency have stabilized around his career norms, with Denver's offensive system providing consistent looks but not overwhelming opportunities. The identical -4.5% ROI on both sides indicates the sportsbooks have properly calibrated this line, factoring in Porter Jr.'s role as the third option behind Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray. His current three-game under streak mirrors an earlier three-game over streak, suggesting natural variance rather than any systematic shift in usage or shooting mechanics. Without significant injury concerns to teammates that would elevate his shot attempts, or matchup-specific advantages against poor three-point defenses, Porter Jr.'s prop lacks the edge premium bettors require. The tight clustering around the 2.5 line, combined with Denver's balanced offensive attack, creates a situation where variance is the primary driver rather than exploitable patterns.
Betting Verdict
PASS with LOW confidence on any specific lean. Porter Jr.'s three-point prop represents market efficiency at its finest, with the 50% over rate and identical ROI on both sides eliminating any mathematical edge. The minimal 0.1 differential above the line gets erased by standard juice, while the balanced offensive system limits upside scenarios. Only consider action with significant line movement or injury-driven usage spikes.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-12 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-04 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-02 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-31 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-27 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-21 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-19 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-17 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-15 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Michael Porter Jr.'s 3-Pointers Made prop record last 10 games?
Michael Porter Jr. has gone 5-5 on three-pointers made overs in his last 10 games, hitting exactly 50% with a 2.6 average. Both overs and unders have generated identical -4.5% ROI, showing perfect market balance.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Michael Porter Jr. 3-Pointers Made last 10 games?
Pass on Porter Jr.'s three-point props currently. The 50% over rate with identical ROI on both sides eliminates any edge, while the 0.1 differential above the line gets negated by standard juice.
What's Michael Porter Jr.'s average 3-Pointers Made last 10 games?
Porter Jr. is averaging 2.6 three-pointers made over his last 10 games against a typical 2.5 line. The 0.1 positive differential is minimal and insufficient to create a profitable betting edge.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Porter Jr.'s three-point props when significant line movement occurs or key teammates face injury concerns that would boost his shot attempts. Avoid betting during current balanced roster situations.