Michael Porter Jr.'s three-point production at home presents a slight under opportunity with a 46.9% over rate (15-17-0 record) and modest +0.1 differential above his 2.59 average line. The under side shows positive ROI at +1.4% while overs bleed -10.5%. Lean Under with medium conviction.
Expert Analysis
Porter Jr.'s home three-point numbers reveal a player whose shot selection becomes more conservative in familiar surroundings. The 2.72 average against a 2.59 line suggests books are pricing him fairly, but the negative over ROI indicates consistent disappointment relative to expectations. Home court advantage often translates to better shot quality rather than higher volume for role players like Porter Jr., who defers more to Nikola Jokic's playmaking in comfortable settings. The longest under streak of four games compared to just two overs suggests momentum favors the under when it hits. Denver's methodical home offense likely emphasizes Porter Jr.'s efficiency over volume, particularly with Jokic orchestrating more deliberate possessions. The absence of split data prevents deeper context analysis, but the consistent under performance across 32 games indicates this isn't random variance. Porter Jr.'s role as a complementary scorer becomes more pronounced at home, where the Nuggets can rely on superior execution rather than forcing shots. The 53.1% under rate isn't overwhelming but represents genuine value when combined with positive ROI trends.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Porter Jr.'s home three-point props consistently disappoint with a 53.1% under rate and positive ROI, suggesting books slightly overvalue his volume in Denver. The under side offers sustainable value as Porter Jr. naturally defers more in comfortable home settings where the Nuggets execute more efficiently. Primary risk involves hot shooting nights or blowout scenarios forcing increased attempts.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-02 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-31 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-27 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-21 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-11 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-09 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-07 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-05 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-28 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-22 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-04 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-29 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-27 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-14 | OPP | 2.5 | 7.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-12 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Michael Porter Jr.'s 3-Pointers Made prop record home games?
Michael Porter Jr. has gone over his three-pointers made prop in 15 of 32 home games (46.9%) with an average of 2.72 makes against a typical 2.59 line, showing consistent under performance.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Michael Porter Jr. 3-Pointers Made home games?
Bet under on Porter Jr.'s three-point props at home. The under hits 53.1% with positive ROI while overs lose money consistently, making it a sustainable edge over time.
What's Michael Porter Jr.'s average 3-Pointers Made home games?
Porter Jr. averages 2.72 three-pointers made in home games, just 0.1 above his typical 2.59 line. This minimal edge suggests books price him fairly but slightly high.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Porter Jr. three-point unders in home games against quality defenses where Denver emphasizes ball movement over individual shot creation, maximizing his role as efficient complementary scorer.