Michael Porter Jr. has been a consistent under performer on three-pointers made in away games, hitting just 35.7% of overs with a 10-18 record. His 2.43 average sits 0.2 makes below the typical line, generating a strong +22.7% ROI on unders. This represents a clear systematic edge favoring the under.
Expert Analysis
Porter Jr.'s road three-point struggles stem from Denver's offensive hierarchy and away-game shooting variance. As the third option behind Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray, Porter Jr. sees his shot selection become more selective on the road, where the Nuggets rely more heavily on their core duo's playmaking. His 2.43 road average versus a 2.61 typical line suggests oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted to his reduced volume in hostile environments. The 18 unders in 28 games isn't random variance—it reflects Porter Jr.'s role as a complementary scorer who defers more in away settings. Denver's pace tends to slow on the road as they lean into their halfcourt offense, naturally reducing possessions and three-point opportunities for role players. Porter Jr.'s current three-game under streak aligns with this broader pattern, as he's averaged just 1.7 makes per game over that span. The consistency of this trend—nearly two-thirds of games going under—indicates a structural issue rather than temporary shooting slump. Road environments historically challenge rhythm shooters like Porter Jr., who relies on catch-and-shoot opportunities that become scarcer when the offense tightens up away from home.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Porter Jr.'s 35.7% over rate and -0.2 differential from the line create a measurable edge, particularly given his complementary role in Denver's road offense. The ideal conditions are games where Murray and Jokic are healthy and the pace projects slower. Main risk is a potential hot shooting night or increased usage due to injury, but the 28-game sample provides solid conviction in this systematic trend.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-12 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-04 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-19 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-17 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-15 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-13 | OPP | 2.5 | 5.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-25 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-23 | OPP | 2.5 | 5.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-12 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-08 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-25 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-23 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-21 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-19 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Michael Porter Jr.'s 3-Pointers Made prop record away games?
Michael Porter Jr. has gone 10-18 on three-pointers made overs in away games, hitting just 35.7% of overs across 28 games. This poor over rate has generated a -31.8% ROI for over bettors while unders have returned +22.7%.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Michael Porter Jr. 3-Pointers Made away games?
Bet the under on Porter Jr.'s three-pointers made in away games. His 35.7% over rate and consistent underperformance versus the line create a clear edge, with 18 of 28 road games going under the total.
What's Michael Porter Jr.'s average 3-Pointers Made away games?
Porter Jr. averages 2.43 three-pointers made in away games, which sits 0.2 makes below the typical 2.61 line. This negative differential has been consistent across his 28-game road sample, indicating systematic underperformance versus market expectations.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Porter Jr. three-point unders in road games where Jokic and Murray are healthy, as he becomes more of a complementary scorer. Avoid when key teammates are injured or when Denver faces pace-up spots that could inflate his attempts.