Max Strus has hit the over just 40% of the time in his last 10 games, going 4-6-0 against his three-pointers made line. Despite averaging exactly his 1.8 line, the under has delivered superior value with +14.6% ROI versus -23.6% for overs.
Expert Analysis
The numbers tell a compelling story about market inefficiency rather than player decline. Strus is hitting his expected volume at exactly 1.8 threes per game, yet the under has been the profitable side due to variance clustering. This suggests the line is accurately set but bettors are overvaluing his ceiling games. The 40% over rate indicates Strus has been more consistent than explosive lately, with fewer blow-up performances that push him well over the number. Cleveland's offensive system has likely settled into predictable patterns where Strus gets his looks but doesn't exceed expectations dramatically. The current one-game under streak isn't statistically meaningful, but it reflects the broader trend of steady production without ceiling games. What's particularly notable is how precisely his average matches the line - this suggests books have dialed in his true talent level, making overs a negative expected value play. The superior ROI on unders indicates sharp money has recognized this pattern, creating a sustainable edge for contrarian bettors willing to fade the casual over bias on three-point props.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The data reveals a clear market inefficiency where Strus consistently meets but rarely exceeds expectations. With his average matching the line exactly at 1.8, the under's +14.6% ROI versus -23.6% for overs creates legitimate value. Target this when the public leans over on three-point volume or after strong shooting nights when recency bias inflates his perceived ceiling.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-07 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-02-07 | OPP | 1.5 | 5.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2025-02-04 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-29 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-25 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-16 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-14 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-12 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-12 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Max Strus's 3-Pointers Made prop record last 10 games?
Max Strus has gone 4-6-0 over/under on his three-pointers made props in his last 10 games, hitting the over just 40% of the time. The under has been significantly more profitable with a +14.6% ROI compared to -23.6% for overs.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Max Strus 3-Pointers Made last 10 games?
Lean under on Max Strus three-pointers made props. His 40% over rate and the under's superior +14.6% ROI create clear value, especially since he's averaging exactly his typical 1.8 line without exceeding expectations consistently.
What's Max Strus's average 3-Pointers Made last 10 games?
Max Strus is averaging exactly 1.8 three-pointers made over his last 10 games, which perfectly matches his typical betting line of 1.8. This zero differential suggests accurate market pricing but limited upside for over bettors.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Max Strus three-pointers under bets after strong shooting performances when public perception inflates his ceiling, or when the over is heavily bet due to matchup narratives. The consistent 1.8 average creates reliable under value.