Malik Monk's three-pointers made prop presents a compelling under opportunity, going over in just 36.4% of games (4-7-0 record) while averaging 1.82 makes against a 2.32 line. The consistent -0.5 differential and strong under ROI of 21.5% suggest systematic line inflation.
Expert Analysis
The numbers tell a clear story about Malik Monk's three-point props being consistently overvalued. His 1.82 average against a 2.32 line represents a meaningful half-make gap that has persisted across 11 games, indicating this isn't random variance but a structural inefficiency. The 36.4% over rate falls well below the 52.4% break-even threshold needed for profitable over betting, while the under's 21.5% ROI demonstrates sustainable value. Monk's role as Sacramento's sixth man creates inherent volatility in his three-point volume, as his minutes and shot attempts fluctuate based on game flow and matchup needs. The Kings' pace-and-space system theoretically supports three-point volume, but Monk's actual production suggests either shot selection issues or defensive attention limiting his clean looks. His longest under streak of three games indicates the market hasn't fully adjusted to his actual output patterns. The lack of recent hot shooting streaks that typically inflate props further supports the under thesis. Most concerning for over bettors is the consistency of the underperformance - this isn't a player hitting a cold spell but rather someone whose line consistently exceeds his realistic output in Sacramento's rotation.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The -0.5 differential between Monk's 1.82 average and the 2.32 line creates consistent value, supported by a 63.6% under hit rate and positive ROI. Target this prop when the line sits at 2.5 or higher, as Monk's role volatility and shot selection make reaching that threshold challenging. Primary risk is a hot shooting streak that could temporarily inflate his makes, but the underlying usage patterns favor continued underperformance.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 11 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-31 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-03-03 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2025-03-01 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-23 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-12 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-10 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-25 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-22 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-04 | OPP | 2.5 | 5.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-08 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Malik Monk's 3-Pointers Made prop record all games?
Malik Monk's three-pointers made prop shows a 4-7-0 over/under record across 11 games, hitting the over just 36.4% of the time. This represents a significant underperformance against market expectations, with unders providing consistent value.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Malik Monk 3-Pointers Made all games?
Bet under on Malik Monk's three-pointers made props. His 1.82 average significantly trails the 2.32 typical line, creating a half-make edge that has produced a 21.5% ROI on under bets while overs lose at -30.6%.
What's Malik Monk's average 3-Pointers Made all games?
Malik Monk averages 1.82 three-pointers made per game across his 11-game sample, which sits 0.5 makes below the typical 2.32 line. This consistent gap represents the core value proposition for under betting.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Monk's three-point unders when the line is set at 2.5 or higher, maximizing the value gap. His sixth man role creates natural shot volume limitations, making higher lines particularly vulnerable to underperformance.