Malik Monk's points production has cratered over his last 10 games, going under in 60% of contests while averaging 14.7 points against a 16.9 line. The Kings guard is currently riding a brutal 5-game under streak, creating compelling value on the under side with a +14.6% ROI.
Expert Analysis
Monk's recent scoring struggles represent a significant departure from his season-long expectations, with the 2.2-point differential between his average and the betting line indicating the market hasn't fully adjusted to his declining production. The 5-game under streak suggests either a role change within Sacramento's offense or underlying factors affecting his shot selection and efficiency. What's particularly telling is the consistency of this downturn - this isn't random variance but a sustained pattern that's persisted across multiple weeks. The 40% over rate combined with the negative ROI on overs (-23.6%) demonstrates that books have been slow to react to Monk's diminished scoring output. However, regression remains a constant threat with any talented scorer, and the sample size of 10 games, while meaningful, isn't large enough to completely discount his proven scoring ability. The lack of split data makes it difficult to identify specific conditions driving this trend, but the persistence suggests structural rather than situational factors are at play.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 5-game under streak and consistent underperformance relative to lines create legitimate value, especially with the +14.6% under ROI validating this approach. However, the medium confidence reflects regression risk - Monk has shown he can score in bunches throughout his career, and Sacramento's pace-up style should eventually benefit his production. Target unders when lines remain elevated above 16 points.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-31 | OPP | 14.5 | 5.0 | -9.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-03-03 | OPP | 18.5 | 13.0 | -5.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-03-01 | OPP | 17.5 | 16.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 16.5 | 14.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-23 | OPP | 16.5 | 0.0 | -16.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-12 | OPP | 18.5 | 25.0 | +6.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-10 | OPP | 16.5 | 20.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-25 | OPP | 16.5 | 12.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-22 | OPP | 19.5 | 21.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-04 | OPP | 14.5 | 21.0 | +6.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Malik Monk's Points prop record last 10 games?
Monk has gone 4-6-0 over/under on his points props in his last 10 games, hitting the over just 40% of the time. He's averaging 14.7 points against lines typically set around 16.9, creating a significant 2.2-point differential favoring under bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Malik Monk Points last 10 games?
Bet the under on Monk's points props. He's currently on a 5-game under streak and averaging 2.2 points below his typical line. Under bets have generated a +14.6% ROI while overs have lost -23.6%, making the under the clear value play.
What's Malik Monk's average Points last 10 games?
Monk is averaging 14.7 points over his last 10 games, which sits 2.2 points below his typical betting line of 16.9. This substantial gap indicates he's consistently underperforming market expectations and creating value on under bets.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Monk's points unders when lines remain above 16 points, as the market appears slow to adjust to his recent decline. Avoid betting when he's coming off a high-scoring game, as regression toward his recent 14.7 average becomes less reliable.