Luka Dončić's assists prop shows a strong 58.6% over rate (17-12-0) with a healthy +0.85 average differential above the 9.29 line. The +11.9% ROI on overs versus -21.0% on unders creates a clear mathematical edge favoring the over across all game situations.
Expert Analysis
Dončić's 10.14 assist average significantly outpacing his 9.29 prop line reveals consistent market undervaluation of his playmaking impact. This 0.85 differential isn't marginal—it represents nearly a full assist of value per game, suggesting oddsmakers struggle to properly price his floor-raising ability as Dallas's primary initiator. The 58.6% over rate across 29 games demonstrates remarkable consistency, with his longest over streak reaching five games compared to just two consecutive unders. This pattern indicates sustainable edge rather than variance-driven results. The +11.9% ROI on overs tells the profitability story clearly—backing Dončić's assists overs has generated real returns while unders have burned money at -21.0%. His role as Dallas's offensive hub makes assist production less volatile than scoring props, as he'll generate opportunities regardless of his shooting efficiency. The current single-game under streak appears more like natural regression than trend reversal, especially given the limited sample size. Market inefficiency persists because casual bettors often focus on Dončić's scoring while overlooking his elite court vision and Dallas's offensive system that funnels possessions through his hands.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. The 0.85 average differential above market lines creates consistent value, supported by a 58.6% hit rate and positive ROI. Target games where Dallas faces pace-up spots or weaker defensive teams to maximize the edge. Primary risk lies in potential line adjustments as books catch up to the trend, making early week betting optimal.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-10 | OPP | 9.5 | 9.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-25 | OPP | 10.5 | 13.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-21 | OPP | 10.5 | 8.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-19 | OPP | 10.5 | 16.0 | +5.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-17 | OPP | 10.5 | 3.0 | -7.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-11 | OPP | 10.5 | 14.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-09 | OPP | 10.5 | 10.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-05 | OPP | 10.5 | 11.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-03 | OPP | 10.5 | 10.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-01 | OPP | 8.5 | 11.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-27 | OPP | 8.5 | 14.0 | +5.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-14 | OPP | 9.5 | 8.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-12 | OPP | 9.5 | 15.0 | +5.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-10 | OPP | 9.5 | 9.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-06 | OPP | 8.5 | 9.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Assists Prop Lines
Compare Luka Dončić props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Luka Dončić's Assists prop record all games?
Luka Dončić's assists prop record across all games shows 17 overs, 12 unders, and 0 pushes for a 58.6% over rate. This translates to hitting overs in nearly 6 out of every 10 games with a profitable +11.9% return on investment.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Luka Dončić Assists all games?
Bet the over on Luka Dončić's assists props. His 10.14 average versus 9.29 line creates 0.85 assists of value per game, supported by 58.6% over frequency and +11.9% ROI. The mathematical edge clearly favors overs in this market.
What's Luka Dončić's average Assists all games?
Luka Dončić averages 10.14 assists per game across all situations, compared to his typical prop line of 9.29. This 0.85 differential represents significant value, as he consistently exceeds market expectations by nearly a full assist per contest.
How reliable is this trend?
Target early week betting before potential line adjustments, focusing on games where Dallas faces faster-paced opponents or weaker defensive teams. These conditions maximize Dončić's assist opportunities while the market inefficiency persists at current pricing levels.