Luguentz Dort shows a modest home scoring edge, hitting the over 53.8% of the time across 39 games with a +1.6 point differential above his typical line. The Thunder guard averages 12.44 points at home versus a 10.81 average line, creating slight value on overs.
Expert Analysis
Dort's home scoring bump reflects the comfort factor many role players experience in familiar surroundings, though the edge is less pronounced than elite scorers typically show. The 53.8% over rate suggests a sustainable pattern rather than random variance, as defensive specialists like Dort often benefit from increased offensive rhythm at home. His 12.44 point average represents meaningful production above the 10.81 line, indicating oddsmakers may undervalue his home court advantage. The current four-game over streak aligns with his season-long trend, though regression risk exists given his defensive-first role. Dort's scoring depends heavily on Oklahoma City's offensive flow and his three-point shooting variance, both of which tend to stabilize positively at home. The +2.8% ROI on overs demonstrates modest but consistent value, while the -11.9% under ROI confirms the directional bias. His role as a complementary scorer means game script and opponent defensive focus on primary options significantly impact his opportunities, making matchup analysis crucial for maximizing this trend's profitability.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Dort's 53.8% over rate and consistent +1.6 differential above the line create legitimate value in home games. The trend appears sustainable given his role stability and home court shooting improvements. Primary risk lies in defensive game scripts limiting offensive possessions, making opponent pace and Thunder's projected game flow critical factors to monitor before placing wagers.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-03 | OPP | 9.5 | 11.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-16 | OPP | 9.5 | 22.0 | +12.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 10.5 | 14.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-14 | OPP | 9.5 | 19.0 | +9.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-08 | OPP | 9.5 | 3.0 | -6.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 10.5 | 5.0 | -5.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-12 | OPP | 11.5 | 11.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 11.5 | 18.0 | +6.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 11.5 | 11.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-20 | OPP | 10.5 | 9.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-14 | OPP | 11.5 | 12.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-12 | OPP | 11.5 | 18.0 | +6.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-10 | OPP | 10.5 | 14.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-08 | OPP | 10.5 | 9.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-27 | OPP | 10.5 | 3.0 | -7.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Luguentz Dort's Points prop record home games?
Dort has hit the over in 21 of 39 home games (53.8%) while going under 18 times. His home scoring record shows consistent but modest value on over bets with a +2.8% ROI.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Luguentz Dort Points home games?
Lean over on Dort's points at home. His 53.8% over rate and +1.6 average differential above the line create legitimate value, though confidence should remain medium given his defensive-first role.
What's Luguentz Dort's average Points home games?
Dort averages 12.44 points in home games compared to his typical 10.81 line, creating a +1.6 differential. This consistent gap above the betting line represents the foundation of his home scoring edge.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Dort overs in home games against pace-up opponents or when Oklahoma City projects for higher offensive possessions. Avoid in defensive slugfests or when Thunder face elite perimeter defenses limiting role player touches.