Kyrie Irving's home assists props show a profitable over trend, hitting 57.7% of the time across 26 games with a +10.1% ROI. His 5.27 average slightly exceeds typical lines around 5.15, creating consistent value. Despite a recent two-game under streak, the data supports leaning over on Irving's home assists.
Expert Analysis
Irving's home assists advantage stems from Dallas's improved offensive flow at American Airlines Center, where the Mavericks' pace and ball movement create more opportunities for their primary facilitator. The 5.27 home average versus 5.15 typical line represents genuine market inefficiency rather than variance, supported by the strong 57.7% over rate across a meaningful 26-game sample. Irving's court vision and passing instincts benefit from familiar surroundings and crowd energy, while home games often feature better offensive rhythm and fewer defensive adjustments from opponents. The +10.1% ROI on overs demonstrates sustainable edge, though the -19.2% under ROI suggests books have adjusted somewhat. The current two-game under streak appears more like natural regression than a fundamental shift, especially given Irving's four-game over streak earlier this season. Key concerns include potential rest management in blowouts and Irving's occasional tendency to hunt his own shot when Dallas struggles offensively, but the home environment generally promotes his playmaking over scoring.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Irving's 5.27 home assists average and 57.7% over rate create a measurable edge against standard 5.0-5.5 lines. The ideal conditions are competitive home games where Dallas maintains offensive flow, maximizing Irving's playmaking opportunities. The main risk is Irving's shot-hunting mentality in tight games, but the home court advantage consistently elevates his assist production above market expectations.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-07 | OPP | 5.5 | 2.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-04 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-21 | OPP | 4.5 | 7.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-17 | OPP | 4.5 | 9.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-13 | OPP | 3.5 | 10.0 | +6.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-07 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-05 | OPP | 4.5 | 3.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-03 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-22 | OPP | 5.5 | 3.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-14 | OPP | 5.5 | 7.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-12 | OPP | 6.5 | 4.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-10 | OPP | 5.5 | 8.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-22 | OPP | 4.5 | 3.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-15 | OPP | 6.5 | 7.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-13 | OPP | 7.5 | 6.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Kyrie Irving's Assists prop record home games?
Irving's assists prop has gone over in 15 of 26 home games (57.7%) with an under record of 11. This translates to a profitable +10.1% ROI when betting overs at home versus a -19.2% loss on unders.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Kyrie Irving Assists home games?
Lean over on Irving's home assists props. His 5.27 average exceeds typical lines around 5.15, and the 57.7% over rate across 26 games shows consistent value despite recent variance.
What's Kyrie Irving's average Assists home games?
Irving averages 5.27 assists in home games, which runs 0.12 higher than the typical 5.15 line. This small but consistent edge has produced profitable results over a 26-game sample size.
How reliable is this trend?
Target competitive home games where Dallas maintains offensive flow. Avoid potential blowouts where Irving might coast, and focus on games with standard rest where his playmaking takes priority over shot-hunting.