Kyle Kuzma's three-point shooting has been ice cold over his last 10 games, hitting just 30% of overs with a brutal -0.7 differential from the typical 1.8 line. The under has delivered a strong 33.6% ROI, making it the clear trend play.
Expert Analysis
Kyle Kuzma's three-point struggles over this 10-game stretch reflect a player whose shot selection and efficiency have deteriorated significantly. Averaging just 1.1 makes against lines typically set around 1.8 represents a massive 39% shortfall that suggests either declining confidence, poor shot quality, or both. The 70% under rate isn't just impressive—it's systematic, indicating Kuzma has fundamentally shifted away from his three-point aggression. Washington's late-season context likely plays a role here, as eliminated teams often see veterans like Kuzma coast through games with less intensity on contested perimeter looks. The five-game under streak that dominated this sample suggests this isn't random variance but a genuine shift in Kuzma's approach. Most concerning for over bettors is that even when Kuzma does connect from deep, he's barely scraping over the number rather than blowing it out. This pattern typically persists when a shooter loses rhythm and confidence, creating a compounding effect where missed attempts lead to more hesitant shot selection. The lack of meaningful overs streaks (longest just one game) confirms this isn't a player cycling between hot and cold stretches—he's simply cold.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Kuzma's 70% under rate and significant negative differential suggest a player who has genuinely shifted away from aggressive three-point shooting. The trend appears sustainable given Washington's meaningless games and Kuzma's apparent lack of confidence from deep. Primary risk is regression to career norms, but the consistency of this cold stretch makes the under the smart play until proven otherwise.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-03 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-27 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-23 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-21 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-16 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-14 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-12 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-10 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-08 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Kyle Kuzma's 3-Pointers Made prop record last 10 games?
Kyle Kuzma went 3-7-0 on three-pointers made overs in his last 10 games, hitting just 30% of overs. He averaged 1.1 makes against lines typically set around 1.8, creating a significant negative differential.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Kyle Kuzma 3-Pointers Made last 10 games?
Bet the under on Kyle Kuzma's three-pointers made props. The 70% under rate and 33.6% ROI on unders shows a clear edge, while his -0.7 differential indicates he's consistently falling short of market expectations.
What's Kyle Kuzma's average 3-Pointers Made last 10 games?
Kyle Kuzma averaged 1.1 three-pointers made over his last 10 games, falling 0.7 short of the typical 1.8 line. This 39% shortfall represents a massive gap between performance and market expectations.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Kyle Kuzma three-point unders during Washington's meaningless late-season games when motivation is low. His current cold streak and reduced aggression from deep make unders the preferred play until he shows renewed confidence.