Kristaps Porziņģis has been a disaster for three-point overs, hitting just 30% (3-7) over his last 10 games while averaging 1.9 makes against a 2.1 line. Currently riding a five-game under streak with a brutal -42.7% ROI on overs. The under trend looks sustainable.
Expert Analysis
Porziņģis's three-point struggles represent more than simple variance—this is a player whose shot selection and role have fundamentally shifted. Averaging 1.9 makes against a 2.1 line reveals books haven't fully adjusted to his current reality. The five-game under streak isn't just bad luck; it's indicative of reduced volume and efficiency that often persists for big men dealing with usage changes or minor physical limitations. Porziņģis historically thrives when he can establish rhythm early, but recent game scripts haven't favored his perimeter game. The -0.2 differential suggests he's consistently falling short by meaningful margins, not barely missing by a single make. This pattern typically continues until a major catalyst—like increased minutes, better matchups, or role clarification—emerges. The 30% over rate across 10 games provides a substantial sample showing clear market inefficiency. Books appear slow to adjust lines downward, creating consistent value on unders. Without evidence of increased three-point attempts or improved shooting conditions, this trend should persist until Porziņģis demonstrates sustained volume changes or catches fire from deep.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 30% over rate and -0.2 average differential create clear value on unders, especially with the current five-game streak showing no signs of breaking. Target games where Porziņģis faces interior-focused defenses or Boston has pace advantages that could limit his perimeter attempts. Primary risk is a single hot shooting night breaking the pattern, but the underlying volume concerns suggest sustainable edge.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-11 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-03-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-02-26 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-02-06 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-02-04 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-02-02 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-27 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-07 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Kristaps Porziņģis's 3-Pointers Made prop record last 10 games?
Porziņģis has gone 3-7 on three-point overs in his last 10 games (30% success rate), currently on a five-game under streak. He's averaging 1.9 makes against a typical 2.1 line, showing consistent shortfalls rather than close misses.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Kristaps Porziņģis 3-Pointers Made last 10 games?
Bet the under. The 30% over rate and -0.2 average differential create clear value, especially with the current five-game under streak. Books haven't adjusted lines downward despite obvious pattern of reduced three-point production from Porziņģis.
What's Kristaps Porziņģis's average 3-Pointers Made last 10 games?
Porziņģis is averaging 1.9 three-pointers made over his last 10 games, falling 0.2 short of the typical 2.1 line. This consistent shortfall indicates more than variance—it suggests genuine reduction in volume or efficiency.
How reliable is this trend?
Target games against interior-focused defenses where Porziņģis may have fewer clean perimeter looks, or when Boston plays at faster pace limiting his three-point attempts. Avoid when he faces poor perimeter defenses that could inflate his volume.