Kristaps Porziņģis has cleared his steals prop in 60% of his last 10 games, averaging 0.8 steals against a 0.5 line for a +0.3 differential. The over has delivered +14.6% ROI while unders have lost -23.6%. This represents a clear edge toward the over.
Expert Analysis
Porziņģis's steals production has consistently exceeded market expectations, with his 0.8 average representing a 60% premium over the typical 0.5 line. This isn't merely statistical noise—the 7-footer's improved mobility and defensive positioning in Boston's switch-heavy scheme has unlocked his steal upside. His length disrupts passing lanes naturally, and the Celtics' aggressive defensive rotations create more deflection opportunities than his previous stops. The +14.6% ROI on overs demonstrates genuine market inefficiency, likely because books undervalue his defensive activity relative to traditional big men. However, the small sample size demands caution, and his steal production has historically been volatile. The concerning element is the -23.6% under ROI, suggesting recent games may have inflated his baseline. Porziņģis's steal totals often cluster around 0-1, making the 0.5 line particularly sensitive to game flow and opponent pace. His defensive engagement can fluctuate based on foul trouble and offensive workload, creating some unpredictability. Still, the sustained outperformance over 10 games indicates legitimate skill development rather than random variance.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Porziņģis's 60% over rate and +0.3 differential suggest the market hasn't fully adjusted to his improved steal production in Boston's system. Target games against guard-heavy lineups where his length creates maximum disruption in passing lanes. The main risk is his inconsistent defensive engagement and the inherently volatile nature of steal props, but the sustained outperformance warrants continued backing.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-03 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-01 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-30 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-28 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-05 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-01 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-24 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Kristaps Porziņģis's Steals prop record last 10 games?
Porziņģis has gone over his steals prop in 6 of his last 10 games (60% rate) with a 6-4-0 over/under record. His overs have generated +14.6% ROI while unders lost -23.6%, showing clear market value on the over side.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Kristaps Porziņģis Steals last 10 games?
Bet the over on Porziņģis steals props. His 0.8 average beats the typical 0.5 line by 60%, and the sustained 6-4-0 over record with positive ROI indicates the market hasn't adjusted to his improved defensive activity in Boston.
What's Kristaps Porziņģis's average Steals last 10 games?
Porziņģis averages 0.8 steals over his last 10 games compared to the standard 0.5 line, creating a +0.3 differential. This 60% premium over market expectations has consistently delivered value for over bettors with strong ROI.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Porziņģis steal overs against guard-heavy lineups where his 7-foot frame disrupts more passing lanes. Avoid games where he's in foul trouble early or facing physical big men who limit his defensive mobility and engagement.