Kris Dunn's steals prop shows a clear under bias in home games, hitting just 40% overs across 10 games with a -23.6% ROI on overs versus +14.6% on unders. The Jazz guard averages 1.6 steals against a 1.1 line, but the under trend suggests consistent value betting against inflated numbers.
Expert Analysis
Kris Dunn's home steals performance reveals a fascinating disconnect between his actual production and market expectations. While averaging 1.6 steals per home game against a typical 1.1 line suggests over value, the 4-6-0 record tells a different story. The -23.6% ROI on overs indicates the market consistently overvalues Dunn's steal production at home, likely influenced by his reputation as a defensive specialist. The current streak of one under follows a pattern where Dunn has struggled to maintain consistency, with his longest under streak reaching five games. This suggests that while Dunn can produce explosive steal performances that inflate his average, he's more prone to quiet defensive nights at home than the betting market recognizes. The 14.6% ROI on unders represents genuine value, particularly when considering that steals are among the most volatile basketball statistics. Home games often feature different pace and officiating tendencies that may not favor Dunn's aggressive defensive style, creating a systematic edge for under bettors who recognize this market inefficiency.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 14.6% under ROI combined with the 60% under hit rate creates a clear edge despite Dunn's inflated average. Target unders when the line sits at 1.5 or higher, as the market consistently overvalues his home steal production. The main risk is Dunn's ability to rack up multiple steals in bunches, but the sustained under performance suggests this edge should persist.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-02-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-12 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-06 | OPP | 0.5 | 4.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-04 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-01 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-18 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-13 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-12 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 4.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-03 | OPP | 0.5 | 3.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Kris Dunn's Steals prop record home games?
Kris Dunn has gone 4-6-0 on steals overs in home games, hitting just 40% with a -23.6% ROI. The under has been significantly more profitable at +14.6% ROI across 10 tracked games.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Kris Dunn Steals home games?
Bet under on Kris Dunn's steals in home games. The 60% under hit rate and 14.6% ROI create clear value, especially when lines are set at 1.5 or higher against his inconsistent home production.
What's Kris Dunn's average Steals home games?
Kris Dunn averages 1.6 steals per home game against a typical 1.1 line, creating a +0.5 differential. However, this average is misleading as the under hits 60% of the time despite the favorable numbers.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Kris Dunn steals unders in home games when lines are 1.5+, particularly after he records multiple steals in previous games when the market may overcorrect upward based on recent performance.