Kris Dunn's assists props at home present a compelling under opportunity, hitting just 30.0% of overs across 10 games with a -0.6 average differential below the typical 4.8 line. The Jazz guard's home assist production consistently falls short of market expectations, creating profitable fade value.
Expert Analysis
Kris Dunn's home assist struggles stem from Utah's offensive structure and his role limitations in familiar surroundings. Averaging 4.2 assists per home game against a standard 4.8 line, Dunn consistently underperforms oddsmaker expectations by over half an assist. The 70% under rate isn't coincidental—it reflects systemic factors affecting his playmaking at Vivint Arena. Home games often feature different rotational patterns as Utah manages minutes more conservatively with their veteran guard, particularly in comfortable matchups. The -42.7% ROI on overs versus +33.6% on unders demonstrates clear market inefficiency, suggesting books haven't adequately adjusted to Dunn's home limitations. His current two-game under streak follows a pattern of inconsistent assist production, with his longest under streak reaching four games. The sample size of 10 games provides sufficient data to identify this edge, especially given the consistency of the underperformance. Utah's pace and offensive philosophy at home likely contribute to fewer assist opportunities for role players like Dunn, who functions more as a defensive specialist than primary facilitator in their system.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Dunn's 70% under rate at home reflects legitimate systemic factors rather than random variance, creating sustainable betting value. Target this when the line sits at 4.5 or higher, as his 4.2 home average provides comfortable cushion. Primary risk involves potential role expansion if Utah's primary ball-handlers face injury or rest situations.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-02-22 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-12 | OPP | 5.5 | 3.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-06 | OPP | 4.5 | 5.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-04 | OPP | 3.5 | 6.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-01 | OPP | 4.5 | 4.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-18 | OPP | 4.5 | 6.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-13 | OPP | 5.5 | 3.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-12 | OPP | 5.5 | 5.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-10 | OPP | 5.5 | 3.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-03 | OPP | 5.5 | 4.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Kris Dunn's Assists prop record home games?
Kris Dunn's assists prop record in home games shows 3-7-0 over/under, hitting just 30.0% of overs. He averages 4.2 assists at home, falling 0.6 assists short of the typical 4.8 line across 10 games.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Kris Dunn Assists home games?
Bet under on Kris Dunn's assists in home games. The 70% under rate and +33.6% ROI on unders reflects systematic underperformance rather than variance, creating profitable fade opportunities when lines exceed 4.5.
What's Kris Dunn's average Assists home games?
Kris Dunn averages 4.2 assists in home games, which sits 0.6 assists below the standard 4.8 market line. This consistent underperformance has produced a 70% under rate across his 10-game home sample.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Kris Dunn assist unders when lines reach 4.5 or higher in home games, particularly against slower-paced opponents. Avoid when Utah's primary ball-handlers face injury concerns that could expand Dunn's playmaking responsibilities.