Klay Thompson has been a disaster for over bettors with 2+ days rest, hitting just 18.2% (2-9 record) while averaging 2.55 threes against a typical 3.5 line. The under has delivered a massive 56.2% ROI with extended rest clearly disrupting his rhythm. Strong lean under.
Expert Analysis
The extended rest trend reveals a fundamental issue with Klay Thompson's shooting mechanics and rhythm maintenance. At 2.55 threes per game with extended rest versus his typical 3.5 line, Thompson is missing his mark by nearly a full three-pointer. This isn't random variance—it's a pattern spanning four months of data. The 7-game under streak within this sample suggests Thompson struggles to recalibrate his shot after layoffs, likely due to the precise muscle memory required for elite three-point shooting. Extended rest disrupts the daily repetition that maintains his stroke consistency. The -65.3% ROI for overs indicates the market hasn't fully adjusted to this trend, creating continued value on unders. Thompson's age (34) makes rhythm disruption more pronounced than younger players who bounce back quicker. The persistence of this pattern across different opponents and game situations suggests it's player-specific rather than circumstantial. While regression toward career norms is always possible, the physiological reality of maintaining shooting touch with irregular practice makes this trend likely to continue. The sample size of 11 games provides statistical significance, and the consistency of the pattern strengthens confidence in future applications.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. The 82% under rate with extended rest represents a clear market inefficiency that Thompson's age and shooting mechanics make sustainable. Target games where Thompson has exactly 2-3 days rest for maximum edge, as longer layoffs may see line adjustments. Primary risk is a hot shooting night overcoming rhythm issues, but the data suggests betting under consistently profits long-term.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 11 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-02-02 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-24 | OPP | 3.5 | 5.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-10 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-02 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-28 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-22 | OPP | 4.5 | 4.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-12 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-06 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-28 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-11 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-27 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Find the Best 3-Pointers Made Prop Lines
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Klay Thompson's 3-Pointers Made prop record 2+ days rest?
Thompson's Three Pointers Made record with 2+ days rest is 2-9 over/under (18.2% overs) across 11 games from October 2023 to February 2024, delivering -65.3% ROI for over bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Klay Thompson 3-Pointers Made 2+ days rest?
Bet under on Thompson's Three Pointers Made with 2+ days rest. The 82% under rate and 56.2% ROI make this a high-confidence play, as extended rest consistently disrupts his shooting rhythm.
What's Klay Thompson's average 3-Pointers Made 2+ days rest?
Thompson averages 2.55 Three Pointers Made with 2+ days rest, nearly a full three-pointer below the typical 3.5 line. This -0.9 differential represents significant value for under bettors consistently.
How reliable is this trend?
Best time to bet Thompson's threes props is when he has exactly 2-3 days rest before games. Target situations where the line remains around 3.5, as longer layoffs may prompt sportsbooks to adjust.