Klay Thompson's three-point production at home has been consistently underwhelming, hitting the over just 37.0% of the time across 27 games with a brutal -29.3% ROI. Averaging 3.11 makes against a 3.5 line creates a meaningful -0.4 differential that favors the under.
Expert Analysis
The numbers paint a clear picture of Klay Thompson struggling to find his rhythm in the familiar confines of Chase Center. His 3.11 average at home falls short of the typical 3.5 line by nearly half a three-pointer per game, a significant gap in a prop market where margins matter. The 37.0% over rate isn't just unlucky variance—it represents a fundamental shift in Thompson's role and efficiency. At 34 years old and coming off major injuries, Thompson's shot selection has become more deliberate, but his legs often betray him during the grind of home games where the Warriors face their toughest competition. The -29.3% ROI on overs tells the story of a market still pricing Thompson based on his peak years rather than current reality. His longest under streak of seven games suggests extended cold spells are part of his new normal. The Warriors' improved ball movement at home paradoxically hurts Thompson's individual volume, as Stephen Curry and others get more involved in the offense. While Thompson can still explode for vintage performances, the consistency required to justify over bets simply isn't there anymore.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Thompson's home three-point props offer solid value on the under, supported by a 63.0% hit rate and positive ROI. The -0.4 differential provides a meaningful edge, though his explosive upside prevents this from being a high-confidence play. Target games against elite defenses or on short rest when his legs are most likely to fail him.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-12 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-07 | OPP | 4.5 | 6.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-02 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-22 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-20 | OPP | 3.5 | 5.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-25 | OPP | 2.5 | 5.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-22 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-10 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-27 | OPP | 3.5 | 6.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-25 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-24 | OPP | 3.5 | 5.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-10 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-07 | OPP | 3.5 | 5.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-04 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-02 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best 3-Pointers Made Prop Lines
Compare Klay Thompson props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Klay Thompson's 3-Pointers Made prop record home games?
Thompson's three-point prop record at home is 10-17-0 over/under across 27 games, hitting the over just 37.0% of the time. This represents one of the more reliable under trends among veteran shooters this season.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Klay Thompson 3-Pointers Made home games?
Bet the under on Thompson's home three-point props. The 63.0% under rate and +20.2% ROI provide clear value, especially when the line sits at 3.5 or higher against his 3.11 home average.
What's Klay Thompson's average 3-Pointers Made home games?
Thompson averages 3.11 three-pointers made in home games, falling 0.4 short of the typical 3.5 line. This consistent gap represents the difference between his current production and market expectations based on past performance.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Thompson under bets at home against top-10 defenses or when Golden State plays on short rest. His shooting consistency suffers most when facing elite perimeter defense or dealing with tired legs.