Klay Thompson's three-pointers made prop shows a significant under bias with just 44.2% overs across 52 games. The Warriors guard averages 3.4 makes against a typical 3.5 line, creating a -0.1 differential that translates to profitable under betting opportunities with +6.5% ROI.
Expert Analysis
Thompson's underwhelming three-point production reflects the harsh reality of his post-injury decline and evolving role within Golden State's system. The 44.2% over rate isn't a fluke—it represents a fundamental shift in Thompson's shot profile and efficiency. His 3.4 average against the standard 3.5 line creates consistent value on unders, particularly given how sportsbooks have been slow to adjust their expectations. The -15.6% ROI on overs tells the story of a market still pricing Thompson based on his peak years rather than current performance. What makes this trend particularly reliable is Thompson's reduced usage in clutch situations, where he previously accumulated many of his makes. The Warriors' deeper rotation and Curry's increased shot volume have naturally compressed Thompson's opportunities. His shooting mechanics, while still fundamentally sound, lack the quick release and rhythm that made him historically elite. The absence of significant split variations suggests this isn't matchup-dependent—Thompson is simply hitting fewer threes regardless of opponent or situation. This consistency makes the under a reliable play, especially when the line sits at 3.5 or higher.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Thompson's 44.2% over rate and -0.1 line differential create a sustainable edge for under bettors. The ideal condition is when books post 3.5 or higher, which happens frequently due to reputation pricing. Main risk is Thompson finding his vintage rhythm during a hot streak, but his current role and mechanics suggest the under trend continues.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-12 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 3.5 | 5.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-07 | OPP | 4.5 | 6.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-04 | OPP | 3.5 | 7.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-02 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-31 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-27 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-22 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-20 | OPP | 3.5 | 5.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-13 | OPP | 4.5 | 2.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-25 | OPP | 2.5 | 5.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-22 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-15 | OPP | 2.5 | 7.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-12 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-10 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Klay Thompson's 3-Pointers Made prop record all games?
Thompson's three-pointers made prop record shows 23 overs and 29 unders across 52 games, hitting the over just 44.2% of the time. This represents a significant under bias that has persisted throughout the season.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Klay Thompson 3-Pointers Made all games?
Bet under on Thompson's three-pointers made props. The 44.2% over rate and +6.5% under ROI create a clear edge, especially when lines are set at 3.5 or higher based on his past reputation.
What's Klay Thompson's average 3-Pointers Made all games?
Thompson averages 3.4 three-pointers made per game, which sits 0.1 below the typical 3.5 line. This small but consistent differential has created profitable under betting opportunities throughout the season.
How reliable is this trend?
The best time to bet Thompson's three-pointers made under is when books post lines at 3.5 or higher, which happens frequently due to reputation pricing from his peak years despite current declining production.