Klay Thompson's blocks prop at home presents a clear under opportunity, hitting just 40.9% of overs across 22 games with a -0.05 average differential to the 0.5 line. The consistent underperformance and +12.8% under ROI make this a high-conviction fade spot.
Expert Analysis
Thompson's home blocks trend reflects his evolved role as a perimeter-focused shooter rather than an active help defender. At 34, his defensive positioning has shifted toward conserving energy for offense, particularly evident in the familiar confines of Chase Center where the Warriors rely more heavily on his scoring. The 0.45 average against a 0.5 line reveals books haven't fully adjusted to his reduced defensive activity level. His longest under streak of 6 games demonstrates the sustainability of this pattern, while the brief 3-game over streak appears to be statistical noise rather than meaningful trend reversal. The -21.9% over ROI indicates sharp money has already identified this edge, but the line remains exploitable. Thompson's blocks production correlates more with opponent pace and size than his own motivation, and home games typically feature more controlled, half-court sets where his rim protection opportunities diminish. The consistency of this underperformance across a substantial 22-game sample suggests this isn't variance but a fundamental shift in his defensive responsibilities within Golden State's system.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Thompson's 40.9% over rate and consistent 0.45 average create a sustainable edge against the 0.5 line. The ideal spot comes against smaller, perimeter-oriented teams where his help defense opportunities are minimized. Main risk involves high-pace games or garbage time situations where defensive rotations increase, but the overall trend strongly favors the under.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-07 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-02 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-24 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-07 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-04 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-02 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Klay Thompson's Blocks prop record home games?
Thompson's blocks prop record at home is 9-13-0 over/under (40.9% overs) across 22 games from November 2023 to April 2024, showing consistent underperformance against the standard 0.5 line with strong under value.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Klay Thompson Blocks home games?
Bet under on Thompson's blocks at home games. The 40.9% over rate, 0.45 average, and +12.8% under ROI create a clear edge, especially against smaller lineups where his help defense opportunities are limited.
What's Klay Thompson's average Blocks home games?
Thompson averages 0.45 blocks in home games, running 0.05 blocks below the typical 0.5 line. This consistent underperformance across 22 games reflects his evolved role focusing more on perimeter offense than active rim protection.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Thompson's blocks under against smaller, perimeter-heavy opponents in home games. Avoid high-pace matchups or potential blowouts where garbage time could inflate defensive rotations and create unexpected blocking opportunities for the veteran guard.