Klay Thompson's assists props have been a goldmine for under bettors, hitting just 30% over the last 10 games with a brutal -0.4 differential versus the typical 2.5 line. The under has delivered +33.6% ROI while overs hemorrhaged -42.7%. This screams systematic underperformance.
Expert Analysis
Thompson's assist struggles reflect Golden State's evolving offensive identity and his role within it. At 2.1 assists per game against a 2.5 line, Thompson is consistently falling short of market expectations by nearly half an assist nightly. This isn't random variance—it's systematic underperformance rooted in how the Warriors utilize him. Thompson operates primarily as a catch-and-shoot specialist, running off screens and spotting up rather than creating for others. His assist opportunities are limited by design, as the Warriors prefer him hunting his shot rather than facilitating. The 70% under rate over 10 games suggests the market hasn't fully adjusted to Thompson's reduced playmaking role in this system. His longest under streak reached five games, indicating sustained periods where his assist production consistently disappoints. The fact that his over streaks maxed at just two games shows how rare his higher-assist performances have become. With Thompson averaging 2.1 assists while books consistently hang 2.5, there's clear value in fading the market's optimistic assessment of his playmaking ceiling.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Thompson's 30% over rate and -0.4 line differential create clear value, but the 10-game sample demands caution. The Warriors' system limits his playmaking opportunities, making 2.5+ assists a reach most nights. Target this when the line sits at 2.5 or higher, especially in games where Golden State figures to control pace and limit Thompson's touches.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-12 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-07 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-02 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-15 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-12 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-10 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-07 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-05 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-03 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Klay Thompson's Assists prop record last 10 games?
Thompson went 3-7-0 over/under on assists props in his last 10 games, hitting the over just 30% of the time. He averaged 2.1 assists against typical lines around 2.5, creating a -0.4 differential that heavily favored under bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Klay Thompson Assists last 10 games?
Lean under on Thompson's assists props. His 30% over rate and consistent underperformance versus the line suggest the market overvalues his playmaking. Target unders when the line sits at 2.5 or higher for best value.
What's Klay Thompson's average Assists last 10 games?
Thompson averaged 2.1 assists over his last 10 games, falling 0.4 assists short of the typical 2.5 line. This consistent shortfall created significant value for under bettors throughout the sample period.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Thompson assists unders when lines sit at 2.5+ and Golden State controls game flow. His catch-and-shoot role limits natural assist opportunities, making higher totals consistently difficult to reach in the Warriors' current system.