Klay Thompson's assist props at home present a clear under opportunity, hitting just 46.2% of overs across 13 games with a negative 0.04 differential from the 2.5 line. The under delivers a modest 2.8% ROI while overs burn at -11.9%, creating a lean under situation.
Expert Analysis
Thompson's assist production at Chase Center reflects his evolved role as primarily a catch-and-shoot specialist rather than a facilitator. The 2.46 average against a 2.5 line reveals consistent underperformance driven by Golden State's ball movement system that flows through Draymond Green and Stephen Curry. At home, the Warriors often build comfortable leads that allow Thompson to focus purely on scoring, reducing his playmaking responsibilities. The 46.2% over rate isn't dramatically low, but the -11.9% ROI on overs indicates the market consistently overvalues his assist potential. Thompson's assist totals lack the volatility seen in other props - he rarely explodes for 5+ assists but also rarely goes completely cold with zero. This creates a narrow band around 2-3 assists that slightly favors the under. The trend shows moderate persistence rather than random variance, as Thompson's role remains consistent game-to-game. Home cooking doesn't boost his playmaking like it might his shooting, making this a fundamentally sound under lean with manageable risk.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Thompson's 2.46 home average sits just below the standard 2.5 line, and the -11.9% ROI on overs suggests consistent market mispricing. Target this under when Golden State is favored by 6+ points, as comfortable home wins reduce Thompson's need to facilitate. Main risk is overtime or blowout losses forcing increased ball-handling duties.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 13 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-12 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-07 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-02 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-10 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-27 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-25 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-24 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-10 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-07 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-22 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-19 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-16 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-30 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Klay Thompson's Assists prop record home games?
Thompson's assist prop record in home games stands at 6-7-0 over/under across 13 games, hitting just 46.2% of overs. He averages 2.46 assists per home game against the typical 2.5 line.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Klay Thompson Assists home games?
Bet the under on Thompson's assist props at home. His 2.46 average falls short of the 2.5 line, and unders show a positive 2.8% ROI while overs burn money at -11.9%.
What's Klay Thompson's average Assists home games?
Thompson averages 2.46 assists in home games, sitting 0.04 below the standard 2.5 line. This slight but consistent shortfall creates value on under bets across his 13-game home sample.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Thompson assist unders when Golden State is home favorites by 6+ points. Comfortable leads reduce his playmaking duties, and the Warriors' system naturally limits his assist opportunities at Chase Center.