Klay Thompson's assists prop shows clear under value with just 45.8% overs across 24 games. His 2.42 average sits 0.1 assists below the standard 2.5 line, generating positive ROI on unders. The data strongly favors betting under on Thompson's assists.
Expert Analysis
Thompson's assist struggles reflect his role transformation in Golden State's evolved offense. Once primarily a catch-and-shoot specialist, he's been asked to handle more playmaking responsibilities, but the results haven't materialized. His 2.42 assists per game against a 2.5 line represents a meaningful edge that books haven't fully adjusted to. The 11-13 over record masks the true value - unders have generated 3.4% ROI while overs hemorrhage 12.5%. This isn't random variance; it's systematic underperformance rooted in Thompson's skill set. His career assist rate has never been elite, and expecting him to suddenly become a primary facilitator at this stage defies basketball logic. The Warriors' ball movement system often sees assists distributed across multiple players, limiting individual totals. Thompson's natural instincts lean toward scoring, not setting up teammates. Even when he does create opportunities, his assist-to-turnover decision-making remains inconsistent. The longest under streak of five games suggests books are slow to adjust lines downward, creating persistent value. Without significant role changes or injury to primary playmakers like Stephen Curry or Draymond Green, Thompson's assist production should remain below market expectations.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Thompson's 45.8% over rate and negative 0.1 differential against the 2.5 line create consistent value on unders. The 3.4% ROI on under bets validates this approach over 24 games. Primary risk involves potential lineup changes or increased usage in specific matchups, but his fundamental role as a scorer-first wing limits upside.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-12 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-07 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-02 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-15 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-12 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-10 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-07 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-05 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-03 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-02 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-27 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-25 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-24 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-15 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Assists Prop Lines
Compare Klay Thompson props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Klay Thompson's Assists prop record all games?
Thompson's assists prop record shows 11 overs and 13 unders across 24 games, hitting just 45.8% of over bets. This under-heavy performance spans from November 2023 through April 2024.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Klay Thompson Assists all games?
Bet under on Thompson's assists props. His 2.42 average sits below the typical 2.5 line, and under bets have generated positive 3.4% ROI compared to losing 12.5% on overs.
What's Klay Thompson's average Assists all games?
Thompson averages 2.42 assists per game across this 24-game sample. This sits 0.1 assists below the standard 2.5 line, creating a small but consistent edge for under bettors.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Thompson's assists unders in games where he's expected to focus on scoring or when the Warriors have their full complement of playmakers healthy, limiting his facilitation opportunities.