Khris Middleton's points props have been a goldmine for under bettors, hitting just 30% overs across his last 10 games with a brutal -3.3 point differential versus the line. The veteran forward is averaging 13.0 points against a 16.3 average line, creating consistent value on the under.
Expert Analysis
Middleton's scoring struggles reflect the harsh reality of his post-injury career phase and role within Washington's rebuilding framework. The 32-year-old's 13.0 point average represents a significant departure from his Milwaukee heyday, yet oddsmakers continue setting lines as if he's still the reliable 20-point scorer from his championship years. This disconnect creates exploitable value, particularly given Middleton's current usage rate and the Wizards' pace-and-space system that often favors younger legs. The -42.7% ROI on overs tells the story of books slow to adjust to his diminished offensive role, while the +33.6% under ROI demonstrates the profitability of fading inflated expectations. His recent two-game over streak shouldn't distract from the underlying trend—Middleton has hit five consecutive unders before this mini-surge, suggesting temporary variance rather than a fundamental shift. The veteran's shot selection remains sound, but his athleticism and burst have clearly declined, limiting his ability to create the high-percentage looks that once made him so reliable. Washington's developmental focus also means Middleton often defers to younger players in crucial scoring situations, capping his upside even in favorable matchups.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Middleton's 70% under rate and -3.3 point differential create clear mathematical edge that should persist given his age and reduced role. Target unders when lines exceed 15 points, as books continue overvaluing his past production. Primary risk is rest-related lineup changes that could boost his usage, but the underlying trend strongly favors continued scoring struggles.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-02 | OPP | 17.5 | 24.0 | +6.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-30 | OPP | 20.5 | 21.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-28 | OPP | 13.5 | 7.0 | -6.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-26 | OPP | 14.5 | 12.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-06 | OPP | 16.5 | 6.0 | -10.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-03 | OPP | 15.5 | 13.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-26 | OPP | 17.5 | 14.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-22 | OPP | 17.5 | 26.0 | +8.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-17 | OPP | 15.5 | 2.0 | -13.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-11 | OPP | 14.5 | 5.0 | -9.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Khris Middleton's Points prop record last 10 games?
Middleton has gone under his points total in 7 of his last 10 games (30% overs), averaging 13.0 points against a 16.3 average line. This 70% under rate has generated a +33.6% ROI for under bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Khris Middleton Points last 10 games?
Bet the under on Middleton's points props. His 70% under rate and -3.3 point differential create clear mathematical edge, especially when lines exceed 15 points as books continue overvaluing his past production.
What's Khris Middleton's average Points last 10 games?
Middleton is averaging 13.0 points over his last 10 games compared to a 16.3 average line, creating a -3.3 point differential. This significant gap shows books are slow to adjust to his reduced scoring role.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Middleton under props when lines are set above 15 points, particularly in back-to-back situations or against strong defensive teams where his age and reduced athleticism become more pronounced factors.