Kevin Durant has been ice cold from beyond the arc lately, hitting under his three-pointers made total in 7 of his last 10 games for a brutal 30% over rate. Averaging just 1.8 makes against a 2.5 line creates a significant -0.7 differential that screams systematic value on the under.
Expert Analysis
Kevin Durant's three-point struggles over this 10-game stretch reflect a concerning shift in his shot selection and efficiency that extends beyond normal variance. The 1.8 average against a 2.5 line represents a massive 28% gap that suggests either the market is slow to adjust or Durant is dealing with underlying factors affecting his perimeter shooting. The current two-game under streak follows his longest cold spell of four consecutive unders, indicating this isn't just a brief rough patch but a sustained pattern. What makes this trend particularly compelling is Durant's historical consistency as a three-point shooter, which means this downturn likely stems from specific circumstances rather than declining ability. The 30% over rate with a -42.7% ROI on overs creates a clear mathematical edge for under bettors. Durant's age and the physical demands of his position suggest fatigue or minor injury concerns could be limiting his three-point volume and accuracy. The fact that his longest over streak was just one game demonstrates how consistently he's fallen short of market expectations. This type of sustained underperformance from an elite shooter typically either continues due to persistent issues or corrects dramatically, making timing crucial for this bet.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Durant's 1.8 average creates substantial value against the 2.5 line, supported by a 70% under rate over 10 games. The ideal conditions involve games where Phoenix faces strong perimeter defense or Durant shows signs of fatigue. The primary risk is regression to his career norms, as elite shooters like Durant can explode without warning and quickly erase negative trends.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-30 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-03-09 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-02-25 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2025-02-12 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-02-11 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-25 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-23 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-13 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-12 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Kevin Durant's 3-Pointers Made prop record last 10 games?
Kevin Durant has gone under his three-pointers made total in 7 of his last 10 games, posting a 3-7-0 record with just a 30% over rate. This represents a significant trend for a player of his caliber and shooting ability.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Kevin Durant 3-Pointers Made last 10 games?
Lean under on Kevin Durant's three-pointers made props. His 1.8 average against typical 2.5 lines creates substantial value, supported by a 70% under rate and strong negative ROI on overs over his last 10 games.
What's Kevin Durant's average 3-Pointers Made last 10 games?
Kevin Durant is averaging just 1.8 three-pointers made over his last 10 games, creating a significant -0.7 differential against the standard 2.5 line. This represents a 28% gap below market expectations for the future Hall of Famer.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Durant three-point unders when Phoenix faces elite perimeter defenses or during back-to-back situations where fatigue might limit his shot attempts. Avoid betting after extended rest periods when regression becomes more likely for elite shooters.