Kevin Durant's three-pointers made prop has hit the under 54.7% of the time across 75 games, generating a +4.4% ROI for under bettors. His 2.28 average essentially matches the typical 2.27 line, but the market consistently overvalues his deep shooting volume. The data points to a lean under approach.
Expert Analysis
Kevin Durant's three-point prop presents a fascinating case study in market inefficiency. Despite his legendary shooting reputation, Durant has connected on fewer than 2.5 threes in 41 of 75 games this season, a 54.7% under rate that translates to profitable betting value. The key insight lies in understanding Durant's role evolution within Phoenix's offensive system. At 36, Durant has shifted toward more mid-range efficiency and post-up opportunities, reducing his reliance on volume three-point shooting that defined earlier career phases. His 2.28 average sits virtually dead-even with typical lines, but the distribution heavily favors lower outputs. The market appears anchored to Durant's peak shooting seasons, failing to adjust for his current usage patterns and shot selection preferences. This creates a systematic edge for under bettors, particularly evident in the current two-game under streak. The 9-game maximum under streak suggests occasional hot stretches, but the overall pattern strongly favors conservative three-point volume. Durant's efficiency-first approach means he's more likely to take quality looks rather than chase volume, making the under the mathematically superior long-term play despite his elite shooting ability.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 54.7% under rate combined with +4.4% ROI creates a measurable edge that outweighs Durant's shooting reputation. His evolved role prioritizes efficiency over volume, making sub-2.5 threes the more probable outcome. The primary risk is Durant's ability to explode for 4-5 threes in any given game, but the data strongly supports consistent under betting as the profitable approach.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-30 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-03-09 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-02-25 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2025-02-12 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-02-11 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-25 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-23 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-13 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-12 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-10 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-07 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-05 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-03 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Kevin Durant's 3-Pointers Made prop record all games?
Kevin Durant has gone under his three-pointers made prop in 41 of 75 games (54.7%) this season. His record shows 34 overs against 41 unders, with no pushes, demonstrating a clear lean toward lower three-point volume than market expectations.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Kevin Durant 3-Pointers Made all games?
Bet under on Kevin Durant's three-pointers made props. The 54.7% under rate and +4.4% under ROI provide measurable value. His evolved role prioritizes efficiency over volume shooting, making the under consistently profitable despite his elite reputation.
What's Kevin Durant's average 3-Pointers Made all games?
Kevin Durant averages 2.28 three-pointers made per game, virtually identical to his typical 2.27 line. However, this average masks a distribution heavily skewed toward lower outputs, with 54.7% of games falling below market expectations for his three-point volume.
How reliable is this trend?
The best time to bet Durant's three-pointers under is consistently throughout the season, as his role evolution creates systematic value. Focus on games where he's likely to operate more in the mid-range and post, reducing his three-point attempt frequency.