Ellis has struggled to reach his steals props, hitting just 4 of 10 overs (40%) with a -0.2 differential from his 1.4 line. The under has delivered strong 14.6% ROI while overs have been costly at -23.6% losses. This creates a clear lean toward the under.
Expert Analysis
Ellis's steals production has consistently fallen short of market expectations over this 10-game stretch, averaging just 1.2 steals against a 1.4 line. This 0.2 deficit might seem marginal, but it represents a 14.3% gap that has proven decisive for betting outcomes. The 40% over rate signals the market may be overvaluing Ellis's defensive impact, possibly influenced by his reputation as an active perimeter defender rather than current production reality. What makes this trend particularly compelling is the sustainability factor—steals are among the most volatile basketball stats, heavily dependent on opponent pace, game flow, and fouling patterns. Ellis's role as a rotational guard limits his minutes and steal opportunities compared to full-time starters who see more possessions. The recent 2-game over streak shouldn't obscure the broader pattern, as it followed a 3-game under run that better reflects his typical output. The 14.6% ROI on unders suggests sharp money has identified this inefficiency, while the brutal -23.6% over losses indicate recreational bettors are likely chasing the appeal of an active defender. Without pace-up spots or extended minutes scenarios, Ellis appears more likely to settle into his 1.0-1.2 steal range than suddenly spike to consistent 1.5+ performances.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Ellis's 1.2 average against a 1.4 line creates a measurable edge, supported by strong under ROI and poor over performance. The market appears to be pricing in defensive reputation over actual production. Target this when Ellis faces slower-paced opponents or in games where Sacramento figures to control tempo, limiting steal opportunities from trailing situations.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 3.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-12 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-11 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-07 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-05 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-04 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-02 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-31 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-26 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Keon Ellis's Steals prop record last 10 games?
Ellis has hit the over on his steals prop just 4 times in 10 games (40% rate) with a 4-6-0 record. His average of 1.2 steals falls 0.2 short of the typical 1.4 line, creating consistent under value.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Keon Ellis Steals last 10 games?
Bet the under on Ellis steals props. His 1.2 average vs 1.4 line creates a measurable edge, with unders showing 14.6% ROI compared to brutal -23.6% losses on overs. The market overvalues his defensive reputation.
What's Keon Ellis's average Steals last 10 games?
Ellis is averaging 1.2 steals over his last 10 games, which sits 0.2 below the typical 1.4 line. This 14.3% gap between production and market expectation has been consistent and profitable for under bettors.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Ellis steals unders when Sacramento faces slower-paced teams or in games where the Kings project to lead. His limited minutes as a rotational guard restrict opportunities, especially when trailing situations don't force aggressive defense.